A 1-in-100 Investor

The first 100 days in office set the tone for any new president. Similarly, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on members who score 100 points of market outperformance on stock picks in their first 100 days. Here, we're looking at All-Stars who made some of their best stock selections early on, and seeing which companies they think will do best next.

One of our highest-rated CAPS members is benyanc, who sports a top 97.88 member rating. Below are a few of this member's most recent stock selections, and how they were rated:

Source: Motley Fool CAPS.
*Price when call was made. Current score is how many points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P500 index from the time of the call.

Let's take a look at what other CAPS members are saying about these stocks, and whether they agree with this top player's assessment.

Degree of risk
Start with pressure to repay $132 billion in taxpayer money borrowed from a government bailout. Add a weak IPO environment. The result? American International Group may buckle under the pressure, and accept a lower buyout bid from Prudential (NYSE: PRU) for its Asian division. Pru's management wasn't alone in sensing once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to get its foot into Asia in such a big way. Canadian insurer Manulife (NYSE: MFC) had reportedly considered taking a minority stake in the unit. 

However, Pru's not exactly sitting in the driver's seat in this transaction. The insurer's own investors are balking now at the price tag it offered for AIG's business. Prudential needs to convince AIG to accept a $30 billion offer, instead of the original price of $35.5 billion. Prudential CEO Tidjane Thiam's reputation and job may be riding on salvaging the deal.

AIG considered taking AIA public, but given the market's diminished appetite for IPOs -- some observers say AIA might fetch less than $30 billion in the public markets -- AIG could be content to go with a firm deal. Prudential's offer might be less than what AIG wanted, but then again, plenty of impatient taxpayers are eager to get paid, too.

Many investors remain concerned about AIG's risk exposure in the rest of the world. TrojanFan sees trouble escalating in the face of potential European defaults:

Greece is to Bear Stearns as Spain is to Lehman. Spain is going to be the Lehman of this whole Eurozone sovereign melodrama and when Spain actually defaults and triggers realized losses and CDS linked collateral margin calls all across the world we are going to feel the chill of the global credit freeze set in once more and real interest rates are going to go sky high in spite of any of the FED's efforts to tame them down.

With more than $109 billion in CDS contracts still on its books, AIG needs to come up with a way to unwind itself from these potentially devastating investments.

Store this away for later
As dry bulk shippers DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS) and Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX) diversify into merchant vessel shipping, rival Eagle Bulk Shipping seems to be relying upon the newfound strength of the dry bulk market to narrow its losses.

Eagle took delivery of six newbuilds last quarter, placing two of them on charters linked to the Baltic Supramax index. CAPS member blesto approves of that move, since it gives Eagle a competitive advantage. The other four shops went on to their respective long-term charters. Such opportunistic moves may help Eagle maintain its 99% utilization rate.

While he's not expecting immediate results, shanelofgren says Eagle's single-minded focus on the Supramax segment will allow it to set sail when rates in that category take off again:

the company has ~22% of its ships indexed to the BSI, which means that they will stand to benefit more than most shippers if shipping rates spike again like they did in 07 and 08 (I don't think this is likely in the next two years, but if that assessment changes then these guys will look much more attractive). Also, they have 6 (~18%) ships coming off very unfavorable short term charters, 5 of 6 of which are less than 60% of current market rates, so their revenue should get a jolt in Q2. 

What a gas!
SunPower's announcement that it's entering a joint venture with AU Optronics rightfully caused a jump in the solar shop's shares. The deal will reduce SunPower's long-term debt, lower its costs, and maintain its competitiveness. On the flip side, AU gets to license SunPower's technology, and will enjoy an increasing share of the JV's output over time. Perhaps more importantly, though, SunPower says the venture's ultimate success depends on continued government subsidies. That makes CAPS All-Star member turtle286 feel decidedly bearish:

This stock will continue to underperform the market as solar stocks get hit with decreased demand due to governments pulling thier subsidies on solar power (particularly in Europe).

A 1-in-100 opportunity
As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts. Since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?