In my recurring Fool column, "Get Ready for the Bounce," we search for future winners in a pile of 52-week losers. But do we really need to sit around for a whole year, waiting for a fallen stock to bounce back?
Nope. Sometimes stocks fall hard, in far less time than a year. And like a superball dropped from the balcony, the harder they fall, the higher they bounce. Today, we'll look at a few equities that've suffered dramatic drops over the past week. With a little help from the 165,000 members of Motley Fool CAPS, we hope to find an opportunity or two for you:
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Companies
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How far from 52-week high?
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Recent Price
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CAPS Rating
(out of 5)
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CACI International (Nasdaq: CACI )
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-22%
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$41.45
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*****
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Allied Irish Banks (NYSE: AIB )
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-79%
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$2.18
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*****
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SandRidge Energy (NYSE: SD )
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-45%
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$4.27
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*****
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USEC (NYSE: USU )
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-22%
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$5.07
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****
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American Capital (Nasdaq: ACAS )
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-27%
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$4.88
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****
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Companies are selected by screening on finviz.com for abrupt 10% or greater price drops over the past week. 52-week high and recent price data provided by finviz.com. CAPS ratings from Motley Fool CAPS.
Sorry, that's not a misprint
Ugh. Did you enjoy last week? I know I didn't -- and a whole lot of people invested in the 800-odd stocks that lost 10% or more of their value over the past seven days probably didn't enjoy the experience much, either. As for why the stocks dropped ... that's still a bit of a mystery.
Oh, there was the reported decline in U.S. productivity, of course -- but as I pointed out last week, that one was as much good news as bad. And the growing gap between exports and imports -- but that's more a matter of concern to America's big industrialists and consumer goods manufacturers. As far as stock specific news, though, there was really precious little to report on any of these companies, and what news there was, was generally pretty good.
While AIB drifted downwards after reporting a sizeable quarterly loss, both USEC and SandRidge entered last week with tailwinds generated from profitable earnings reports the week before. American Capital had just been upgraded (and not by some hack shop, either. This was a vote of confidence from the stellar Stifel Nicolaus.) And CACI International? They got unqualifiedly good news last week, in the form of a contract win on a $49 million deal to help support the U.S. Navy's Naval Surface Warfare Center.
Considering the absence of actual, tangible, relevant reasons to sell the stocks, therefore, it's no surprise that we see CAPS investors remaining generally bullish on their prospects. And in no case does that seem more reasonable to me, than with CACI International itself.
The bull case for CACI International
Why would you want to own CACI (aside from the boundless joy to be derived from repeating the name at cocktail parties?) Well, for one thing, CAPS member RickRussell1 tells us that "this company has been doing really well in Government contracting sector."
And odenpaul thinks it will continue doing so: "This company has good growth prospects, with more and more emphasis in Cyber security. The valuation is also pretty low right now, giving it some room to run."
Last but not least, the Fool's own TMFDeej informs us that: "The Hedge Fund Blue Harbour Group ... recently filed a 13D stating that it has acquired a 5.6% stake in the company for 'investment purposes.' Blue Harbour has made six 13D filings in its history. Five of those six companies that the fund filed 13Ds on were sold within twenty months. Four of these sales were at significant premiums to the price of the company's stock at the time Blue Harbour made its 13D filing. I don't know a whole lot about CACI, but I like these odds."
And as a matter of fact, so do I -- whether there's a buyout in the offing, or not. Because the plain fact of the matter is that this stock is just too darn cheap to resist.
Consider: Right now, CACI sells for a very modest 11.5 P/E ratio. Considering that slower growing rival SAIC (NYSE: SAI ) will set you back more, and that General Dynamics (NYSE: GD ) , while technically carrying a lower P/E, is projected to grow at barely half CACI's rate, this valuation simply doesn't do justice to CACI's projected 14% long-term growth rate.
Plus, with nearly $156 million in free cash flow, you can reasonably argue the stock is even cheaper than its P/E suggests. Valued on free cash flow, CACI sells for the absurdly cheap sum of just 8 times cash earnings.
Time to chime in
To me, the question isn't whether someone will buy this company -- it's when. Sooner or later, someone is bound to notice the value in a stock this cheap, with growth prospects this good. Maybe it'll be Blue Harbour. Maybe Carlyle Group, KKR, or perhaps ... you. Fact is, you don't have to own your own hedge fund to profit from a deal this good. Even a small piece of the action should pay off handsomely from today's prices.
Or so say I. But what I'd really like to know is what you think about CACI International. Is this the greatest deal in government contracting since SAIC came public, or do you see a catch? Click over to Motley Fool CAPS now, and clue us in.
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