Leading the Vanguard Windsor Fund, John Neff beat the market by more than 3 percentage points per year for more than 30 years. That's an incredible track record and the difference between $39,116 and $17,449 on a $1,000 investment, assuming a 10% average return. Here's the master's secret: Two of those 3 percentage points came from dividends. So while Neff worked hard to buy cheap stocks, dividends were crucial to outsized returns. That's totally cool!
To help find totally cool stocks that offered value and income, Neff used his total return ratio, defined as:
Total return ratio = (analysts' expected earnings growth rate + dividend yield) / price-to-earnings ratio
Neff would compare company ratios to the market's ratio. If a company's ratio was at least 50% greater than the market's, he gave it a look. If Neff's research revealed that the market misinterpreted the company's prospects and thus created an opportunity, he purchased shares for the portfolio.
Currently, the market's total return ratio is about 0.95. (I used a Shiller P/E of 20.1, a yield of 2%, and two-year estimated earnings growth of 17.2%.) So to meet Neff's criteria, a company's ratio must be greater than 1.43.
Clothing retailer Stage Stores (NYSE: SSI ) , which owns various retail outlets such as Goody's and Peebles, made the cut as a potential market-beater. Let's see how it stacks up to its competition.
|
Company
|
2-Year Growth Estimate
|
Yield
|
P/E
|
Total Return Ratio
|
|
Stage Stores
|
18.3%
|
3.0%
|
12.3
|
1.74
|
|
The TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX )
|
13.8%
|
1.5%
|
12.5
|
1.22
|
|
The Buckle (NYSE: BKE )
|
1.9%
|
3.2%
|
9.0
|
0.57
|
TJX Companies, parent to TJ Maxx and Marshalls, gave Stage Stores a run for its money, but fell a little short in the growth and yield departments. Buckle offers the most attractive yield, but analysts aren't expecting much growth from the company over the next few years.
The Foolish bottom line
Neff's total return ratio is beautiful because it combines value and income: cheap stocks with dividend kickers. Investors can profit from multiple expansion while collecting dividend payments along the way. And as Neff showed, done correctly, this strategy can lead to excess returns over the market. As with any metric, Neff's total return ratio is just a starting point. But with a total return ratio of 1.74, Stage Stores certainly seems like a totally cool stock to get to know.
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