Should You Sell Paychex Right Now?

Should you sell Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX  ) today?

The decision to sell a stock you've researched and followed for months or years is never easy. But if you fall in love with your stock holdings, you risk becoming vulnerable to confirmation bias -- listening only to information that supports your theories, and rejecting any contradictions.

In 2004, longtime Fool Bill Mann called confirmation bias one of the most dangerous components of investing. This warning has helped my own investing throughout the Great Recession. Now I want to help you identify potential sell signs on popular stocks within our 4-million-strong Fool.com community.

Today I'm laser-focused on Paychex, ready to evaluate its price, valuation, margins, and liquidity. Let's get started!

Don't sell on price
Over the past 12 months, Paychex is down by 4.5% versus an S&P 500 return of 11.3%.  Investors in are no doubt disappointed with their returns, but is now the time to cut and run? Not necessarily. Short-term underperformance alone is not a sell sign. The market may be missing the critical element of your investing thesis. For historical context, let's compare Paychex's recent price with its 52-week and five-year highs. I've also included a few other businesses in the same industry or a related one.

Company

Recent Price

52-Week High

5-Year High

Paychex $27.61 $32.88 $47.10
Automatic Data Processing (Nasdaq: ADP  ) $42.94 $45.74 $51.50
Manpower (NYSE: MAN  ) $54.66 $63.00 $97.30
Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI  ) $26.77 $32.25 $43.90

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

As you can see, Paychex is down from its 52-week high. If you bought near the peak, now's the time to think back to why you bought it in the first place. If your reasons still hold true, you shouldn't sell based on this information alone.

Potential sell signs
First up, we'll get a rough idea of Paychex's valuation. I'm comparing Paychex's recent P/E ratio of 20.6 with where it's been over the past five years. 

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

Paychex's P/E is lower than its five-year average, a possible indication that the stock is undervalued. A low P/E isn't always a good sign, since the market may be lowering its valuation of the company because of less attractive growth prospects. But it does indicate that, on a purely historical basis, Paychex looks cheap.

Now let's look at the gross-margin trend, which represents the amount of profit a company makes for each $1 in sales, after deducting all costs directly related to that sale. A deteriorating gross margin over time can indicate that competition has forced the company to lower prices, that it can't control costs, or that its whole industry's facing tough times. Here's Paychex's gross margin over the past five years.

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

Paychex is having no trouble maintaining its gross margin, which tends to dictate a company's overall profitability. This is solid news; however, Paychex investors need to keep an eye on this metric over the coming quarters. If margins begin to dip, you'll want to know why.

Next, let's explore what other investors think about Paychex. We love the contrarian view here at Fool.com, but we don't mind cheating off our neighbors every once in a while. For this portion of our research, we'll examine two metrics: Motley Fool CAPS ratings and short interest. The former tells us how Fool.com's 170,000-strong community of individual analysts rates the stock, and the latter shows what proportion of investors is betting that the stock will fall. I'm including other peer companies once again for context.

Company

CAPS Rating (out of 5)

Short Interest (% of Float)

Paychex 4 2.9
Automatic Data Processing 5 1.7
Manpower 3 3.2
Robert Half International 3 11.3

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

The Fool community is rather bullish on Paychex. We typically like to see our stocks rated at four or five stars. Anything below that level is a less-than-bullish indicator. I highly recommend that you visit Paychex's stock-pitch page to see the verbatim reasons behind the ratings.

Here, short interest is at a mere 2.9%. A number like this typically indicates that few large institutional investors are betting against the stock.

The last metric I like to look at is the current ratio, which lets investors judge a company's short-term liquidity. If Paychex had to convert its current assets to cash in one year, how many times over could it cover its liabilities? As of the last filing, the company has a current ratio of 1.14. Paychex could cover its liabilities, but it's still below a healthy level of 1.5.

Finally, it's highly beneficial to determine whether Paychex belongs in your portfolio -- and to know how many similar businesses already occupy your stable of investments. If you haven't already, be sure to put your tickers into Fool.com's free portfolio tracker, My Watchlist. You can get started right away by adding Paychex.

The final recap

Paychex has failed one of the quick tests that would make it a sell. Does that mean you should hold your Paychex shares? Not necessarily. Just keep your eye on these trends over the coming quarters.

Remember to add Paychex to My Watchlist to help you keep track of all our coverage of the company on Fool.com.

If you haven't had a chance yet, be sure to read this article detailing how I missed out on more than $100,000 in gains through wrong-headed selling.

Jeremy Phillips owns no shares of the companies mentioned. 

Paychex is a Motley Fool Inside Value choice. Automatic Data Processing is a Motley Fool Income Investor recommendation. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. True to its name, The Motley Fool is made up of a motley assortment of writers and analysts, each with a unique perspective; sometimes we agree, sometimes we disagree, but we all believe in the power of learning from each other through our Foolish community. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


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  • Report this Comment On October 24, 2010, at 2:00 PM, bellbell63 wrote:

    I think PAYX has a double reason to at least hold.

    When the job recovery comes it will come from small businesses which are PAYX mainstay. Also when short term interest rates rise PAYX will make more from the interest on held money. This makes PAYX and nice recovery one-two punch. You may have to wait a couple of years for the above to happen but while you wait collect the nice 4.4% dividend.

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