How Expensive Is Golden Star Resources' Stock by the Numbers?

Numbers can lie -- but they're the best first step in determining whether a stock is a buy. In this series, we use some carefully chosen metrics to size up a stock's true value based on the following clues:

  • The current price multiples
  • The consistency of past earnings and cash flow
  • How much growth we can expect

Let's see what those numbers can tell us about how cheap Golden Star Resources (AMEX: GSS  ) might be.

The current price multiples
First, we'll look at most investors' favorite metric: the P/E ratio. It divides the company's share price by its earnings per share (EPS) -- the lower, the better.

Then, we'll take things up a notch with a more advanced metric: enterprise value to unlevered free cash flow. This divides the company's enterprise value (basically, its market cap plus its debt, minus its cash) by its unlevered free cash flow (its free cash flow, adding back the interest payments on its debt). Like the P/E, the lower this number is, the better.

Analysts argue about which is more important -- earnings or cash flow. Who cares? A good buy ideally has low multiples on both.

Golden Star Resources has a P/E ratio of 51.8 and an EV/FCF ratio of 18.5 over the trailing 12 months. If we stretch and compare current valuations to the five-year averages for earnings and free cash flow, Golden Star Resources has negative P/E and EV/FCF ratios.

A one-year ratio under 10 for both metrics is ideal. For a five-year metric, under 20 is ideal.

Golden Star Resources is zero for four on hitting the ideal targets, but let's see how it compares against some competitors and industry mates. 

Company

1-Year P/E

1-Year EV/FCF

5-Year P/E

5-Year EV/FCF

Golden Star Resources

51.8

18.5

NM

NM

Northgate Minerals (AMEX: NXG  )

NM

60.4

 

24.2

 

9.2

Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM  )

45.9

NM

93.6

NM

Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL  )

22.4

14.5

58.1

50.5

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; NM = not meaningful.

Numerically, we've seen how Golden Star Resources' valuation rates on both an absolute and relative basis. Next, let's examine...

The consistency of past earnings and cash flow
An ideal company will be consistently strong in its earnings and cash flow generation.

In the past five years, Golden Star Resources' net income margin has ranged from -35% to 23.6%. In that same time frame, unlevered free cash flow margin has ranged from -134.4% to 17.6%.

How do those figures compare with those of the company's peers? See for yourself:

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; margin ranges are combined.

Additionally, over the past five years, Golden Star Resources has tallied up three years of positive earnings and two years of positive free cash flow.

Next, let's figure out ...

How much growth we can expect
Analysts tend to comically overstate their five-year growth estimates. If you accept them at face value, you will overpay for stocks. But while you should definitely take the analysts' prognostications with a grain of salt, they can still provide a useful starting point when compared to similar numbers from a company's closest rivals.

Let's start by seeing what this company's done over the past five years. In that time period, Golden Star Resources has put up some losses that render its EPS growth rate meaningless. Meanwhile, Wall Street's analysts expect future growth rates of 132%.

Here's how Golden Star Resources compares to its peers for trailing five-year growth (like Golden Star, Northgate, and Hecla don't have meaningful growth rates):

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; EPS growth shown.

And here's how it measures up with regard to the growth analysts expect over the next five years:

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; estimates for EPS growth.

The bottom line
The pile of numbers we've plowed through has shown us how cheap shares of Golden Star Resources are trading, how consistent its performance has been, and what kind of growth profile it has -- both on an absolute and a relative basis.

The more consistent a company's performance has been and the more growth we can expect, the more we should be willing to pay. We've gone well beyond looking at a 51.8 P/E ratio.

Beyond the numbers, you need to have a feel for how gold prices are going to fare. I recommend this article by Alex Dumortier for some analysis.

Interested in reading more about any of these stocks? Add them to My Watchlist to find all of our Foolish analysis.

Anand Chokkavelu doesn't own shares in any company mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (2) | Recommend This Article (4)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On November 15, 2010, at 11:05 AM, rfaramir wrote:

    bottom line fail at analysis:

    "The pile of numbers we've plowed through has shown us how cheap shares of Golden Star Resources are trading"

    No they haven't. With fails on all metrics, there is no sense of cheap, as there is no value shown.

    "how consistent its performance has been, and what kind of growth profile it has -- both on an absolute and a relative basis"

    No consistent performance, no past growth (on the graph). And relative performance is impossible to judge: every company listed failed almost every one of your tests. Of 16 tests (4 each for 4 companies), only 1 (NXG 5yr EV/FCF) was passing. 5/16 were Not Meaningful! It's hard to tell which failed less badly, even!

    "The more consistent a company's performance has been and the more growth we can expect, the more we should be willing to pay."

    A true statement that has nothing to do with what you've shown here.

    "We've gone well beyond looking at a 51.8 P/E ratio."

    No, you've tried, but failed. Sorry. You could say the 4 companies failed, but you don't even say that.

    I don't mean to be personally disrespectful, but this is half-baked analysis at best. The numbers presented do not allow for solid conclusions, and you didn't go further to find numbers that would give you a basis for saying something about the companies.

    Disclosure: In real life, I'm long only AEM of the above stocks. I've felt a little iffy about it, and this attempt at analysis gives me no good feelings about it.

  • Report this Comment On November 29, 2010, at 8:55 AM, leaderoftheback wrote:

    Just out of GSS...it's a junk company. How's that for analysis? I owned it for years, every one of them the one in which they almost made money...at $600/oz, at $1000/ oz, at $1200 per oz. There is something not obvious about this company that explains that dynamic. I wish I could see exactly what (some is share dilution, which has been significant, but that does not explain the recent 7 cent loss). One thing I became really aware of is how GSS rides a wave of momentum. It may well rise back up from the low $4 level, especially if gold goes to $2K, but buyer beware. This company just ain't right.

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