Rich Greifner is cheap, and he wants his stocks to be cheap. The advisor of Motley Fool Duke Street recently shared three outstanding businesses that he’s watching for the right price. For the first, he needs shares to drop from their current stratospheric level; for the second, there’s a specific catalyst that he believes will cause shares to tumble more than they deserve; and for the third, he’s ready to buy now. To make your investing life a bit easier, you can now create your own watchlist for free at Fool.com, giving you one hub for all the news and numbers on the companies you care most about; just go to www.MyWatchlist.com to get started or click the links at the bottom of this article to scout one of the companies on Rich’s watchlist.
An overstuffed burrito
Rich has owned shares of Chipotle (NYSE: CMG ) in the past and he hopes to again someday. “It’s one of the best companies in the world, but the current price just doesn’t make sense,” he said. “I believe it will be worth $230 per share at some point, but I don’t think that point is now.”
There is some reason to believe Chipotle could be in for a drop back into Rich’s range. As the Fool’s Andrew Bond recently wrote in an insightful analysis of Chipotle, recent reports “indicate a slowing of the trends that helped propel restaurant stocks higher in 2010. If the high inflation expectations of many of these companies’ managements prove true and consumer traffic continues to slow, it could be a tough year for investors in restaurant stocks. I believe Chipotle, with its extremely rich valuation and premium input costs, is at the most risk in this environment.” Rich has Chipotle on his watchlist and is hoping for a less-inflated valuation.
Bringing the wood
There are few retail growth stories that are actually still growing and available at a reasonable price. Bare-bones hardwood flooring seller Lumber Liquidators (NYSE: LL ) fits the bill, and Rich thinks it’s about to become significantly more attractive. The company has the rare ability to open a new store and recoup 100% of its investment in the first year, thanks to its choice of neighborhoods (low-rent industrial parks). And by buying a year’s worth of inventory in a single pop, they get their product at a cut rate and can pass the savings along to the consumer.
The one cloud is in the shape of China. Lumber Liquidators sources much of its low-cost lumber from China, and a new tariff on these imports is on the horizon. Rich feels that the added cost will affect the business in the short-term, but should provide an attractive entry point for patient, long-term oriented investors. Expect a dramatic overreaction to this news -- “the stock is going to get rocked” -- and ride the stock back up as Lumber Liquidators adapts and shifts its supply to no-tariff countries.
A company that sucks less than you might think
“I like Gap (NYSE: GPS ) because nobody likes Gap,” Rich says. “And investors and shoppers dislike the company for a reason: the store hasn’t done anything right on the sales front for about a decade. Not exactly a compelling argument to buy, I know.”
But the retailer is doing everything right behind the scenes. Management has taken costs out of the business, it’s remodeling or closing its underperforming stores, and it’s reducing the time it takes to move its fashions from the design stage to the shelves. It remains the home for fashion staples -- people will always need jeans and khakis -- and meanwhile the company brings in a ton of free cash flow, which it uses to pay a 2% dividend and repurchase shares by the truckload.
“At some point, the market is going to catch on,” Rich says. “As long as Gap can avoid sucking more than it currently sucks on the sales front, we’re looking at a long-term winner.”
And that's why it pays to watch. You can make smarter investing decisions with your own version of My Watchlist, new and free from the Fool. Click below to start following one of the stocks mentioned above: