Being able to retire rich, or at least comfortably, is the goal of almost any investor. However, it's much easier said than done. In a recent Wells Fargo survey, respondents between the ages of 50 and 59 said that they had, on average, about $29,000 saved up. With pensions all but gone, and social security targeted for cuts in the future, it's hard to count on anyone but yourself. But $29,000 isn't going to cut it for most people, so you've got to get involved in the stock market in order to grow that nest egg. Getting in the game is the easy part; choosing the right stocks is the hard part.
Making prudent decisions
Generally speaking, I look for four traits in a retirement stock:
- Valuation: Investors of all ages want to make sure they're not overpaying for a stock, but this matters even more in retirement. Retirees don't have the long time horizon that younger investors have, so it's essential to make sure you don't overpay in the short term.
- Dividends: Most retirees need a combination of both growth and income, as they'll be depending more and more on their portfolio to help with everyday expenses. Companies that pay dividends not only offer immediate income, but they've also proven to outperform non-paying dividend companies over long periods of time.
- Growth: Investors love dividends, but everyone wants to see their stocks rise over time. Growth can be as big a part of your portfolio as a steady dividend. It's important to note that you don't need a high-flying stock that's going to shoot to the moon; a company that can grow and outperform the market is hard enough to find, so steady growth is highly covetable.
- Low volatility: Retirees want to invest in great growth stocks just as much as anyone else, but they also want to be able to rest well knowing that their portfolio won't be taking them on a rollercoaster ride. At the end of the day, most retirees would rather own a sturdy company that lets them sleep at night than a company that whips up and down with the gyrations of the market.
So how does Duke Energy stack up?
In order to check out the valuation of Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK ) , we don't want to look at just its P/E ratio of 18.8. That may seem expensive, but we really don't know without looking at the ratio in historical context. Over the last five years, Duke Energy's average P/E ratio has been 15.8, which is less than the current ratio. This suggests that investors may be paying more than they've had to in the past, so it's important to find out why the price tag might be a bit higher today.
Duke Energy's dividend is 5.54%. This is tremendous; not only does Duke Energy pay a dividend, but it pays more than the average company in the S&P 500.
Next, we want to ensure that Duke Energy's stock has the ability to rise over the next five, 10, or 20 years. A company that's growing its net income has the best possible chance to see its share price rise over time. Of course, we can't predict the future, but we can look back to get an idea of how the company has performed in the past in order to try to ensure future earnings growth. Over the past five years, Duke Energy has shrunk its net income to -6.3%. Unfortunately, Duke Energy has run into its own share of problems, and the financial collapse of 2008 certainly couldn't have helped either. So the company has been unable to grow earnings, which doesn't exactly mean that it won't in the future, but it's certainly not the greatest of signs.
One of the best measures of volatility is called beta. Beta measures the impact that the movement of the stock market will have on a particular stock. For instance, a beta of 1.0 signifies that Duke Energy will move in tandem with the market; a beta of 2.0 means that the stock will move up twice as much as the general market, and vice versa. In this particular case, Duke Energy has a beta of 0.457, which is pretty low. Generally speaking, I like to see a beta below 1.2 for retirees. In this case, Duke Energy fits the bill.
Let's look at the competition
We've taken a look at Duke Energy, and maybe you think it's passed all the tests or maybe you just don't feel comfortable with the results. Either way, it's beneficial to see how a company stacks up in its industry, because it's just as important to understand a company's competitors as it to understand that particular company. Here are Duke Energy's stats when compared to three of its closest competitors:
|
Company
|
Current P/E
|
Dividend Yield
|
5-Year Net Income Growth
|
1-Year Beta
|
| Duke Energy |
18.8 |
5.5% |
-6.3% |
0.5 |
| American Electric Power (NYSE: AEP ) |
13.4 |
5.1% |
2.2% |
0.7 |
| Constellation Energy Group (NYSE: CEG ) |
NM |
3.1% |
NM |
1.2 |
| Progress Energy (NYSE: PGN ) |
15.1 |
5.5% |
4.2% |
0.4 |
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; NM = not meaningful.
Each company has traits to like and traits left to be desired. Either way, it's beneficial to look at the industry picture and not just Duke Energy in isolation.
Of course, I can't decide for you whether or not this is the best stock for retirement, but it has passed two of the four tests, which is which shows some promise. It doesn't necessarily mean this stock is a slam dunk, but it has shown its ability to reward shareholders and that means it could have a place in your portfolio.
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