Just because the height of earnings season is over doesn't mean there aren't plenty of companies reporting figures this week. So far, earnings have come in ahead of estimates for more than 70% of S&P 500 companies that have reported, so the figures are definitely favoring the bulls.
However, being a noted skeptic of this gangbuster rally, I'm having a harder time seeing the potential for earnings beats this week. For me, it actually seems easier to pick companies that could have a hard time hitting consensus estimates rather than likely winners. Therefore, let's take a look at three companies that could miss the mark this week.
Knock knock, anyone home?
Following the worst year on record for home sales, earnings prospects for Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL ) probably won't be too bright. Two weeks ago, Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH ) reported a considerably wider-than-expected loss, which it blamed on hesitant consumer spending amid high unemployment and a continuing glut of foreclosed homes still on the market.
Although housing data in December suggests that new home sales could be bouncing off their lows, these quarterly comparisons for Toll will be going up against figures last year that were aided by the now-expired homebuyer tax credit. Call me a skeptic, but this looks like a miss waiting to happen.
I'm watching you
A slowdown in growth could be in store for cyber-security company SourceFire (Nasdaq: FIRE ) when it reports on Wednesday. The company's stock has been boosted by takeover speculation, with investors shrugging off last quarter's weak guidance as a one-time fluke. In my experience, it's often the case that a technology company decreasing guidance is more than a one-quarter trend, so shareholders may want to be wary of SourceFire's guidance.
It's also disturbing that competitors Symantec (Nasdaq: SYMC ) and Checkpoint Software Technologies (Nasdaq: CHKP ) have seen consensus estimates and growth prospects rise over the past month while analysts have pulled in some of their estimates for SourceFire. At a forward P/E of 42, it had better blow earnings away or shareholders may be scurrying for the exit yet again.
Aisle pass, thank you
Grocery chain Safeway (NYSE: SWY ) may have a hard time meeting estimates when it reports earnings on Thursday. As SUPERVALU (NYSE: SVU ) showed us last month, if you can't pass along rising costs to consumers, your margins can take a big hit.
It's no secret that food costs are rising, and Safeway is stuck between a rock and a hard place. It has to decide between keeping prices low to retain loyal customers at the expense of its margins, or simply raise its prices and risk a drop in revenue. Personally, it seems like a risky bet to own a company with razor-thin margins amid a rising food cost environment, and I'd advise keeping your distance from Safeway shares this week.
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