By
Rich Smith
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More Articles
February 24, 2011
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Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: A little more than a month ago, Fool contributor Brian Pacampara predicted that shares of GulfMark Offshore (NYSE: GLF ) -- then trading at a sizable discount to rivals SEACOR (NYSE: CKH ) and Tidewater (NYSE: TDW ) , and even bigger discounts to energy-services giants like Halliburton (NYSE: HAL ) and Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB ) -- were poised to close the gap. Today, hours after GulfMark reported its fiscal 2010 earnings, shares currently sit 10% higher than their closing price yesterday.
So what: GulfMark closed out fiscal 2010 with $360 million in revenue and $1.86 per share in profits "before items" (which pushed the actual net result down to a $1.36-per-share loss).
Now what: The company missed on revenue expectations but made up the difference in profits earned on that revenue. While its actual loss doesn't sound good, it wasn't as big as investors had feared, making today's pop in share price a likely "relief rally." CEO Bruce Streeter commented in the earnings release that the year ended up being "much better than we anticipated" -- but that doesn't mean it's smooth sailing from here on out.
Problems with obtaining drilling permits in the Gulf of Mexico, an "official and de facto" drilling moratorium, and the completion of cleanup work on BP's (NYSE: BP ) oil spill all combine to create little visibility in how this story will run from here on out. With GulfMark now solidly unprofitable, selling for 19 times what Wall Street expects it to earn this year, and with earnings expected to decline at about 2% per year for the next five years, I'm not convinced the stock will retain today's gains.
The smart move here: Declare victory, pocket your winnings, and invest them in something with a little more potential to grow.
Want more information on GulfMark? Add it to your watchlist.
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