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Sirius XM Radio's Crude Awakening

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There's a grim reality at the pump. Gasoline prices are climbing with little relief in sight.

Oil closed at a 29-month high last week, a fact Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI  ) shareholders can't ignore.

Beyond the obvious hit on disposable income, higher gas prices encourage drivers to spend less time on the road. That's bad news for satellite radio, Garmin's (Nasdaq: GRMN  ) GPS systems, General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) OnStar subscriptions, or any other company relying on heavy auto usage to justify the expenditures.

If you're not driving as much as you used to, shelling out $15 a month for satellite radio becomes a less compelling value proposition.

Americans logged 3 trillion miles on the road last year, according to the U.S. Transportation Department. This is the highest tally since 2007, which capped off an impressive two-decade streak of increases. The recession obviously tripped up the auto industry after that, but it's hard to dismiss the spike in gasoline prices in 2008 as an important contributor.

The satellite radio industry suffered its only two quarters of sequential declines in subscribers during the first half of 2009. Is Sirius XM doomed if oil prices keep climbing, given the unrest in the Middle East?

Let's get one thing out of the way: Sirius XM's stock isn't returning to its pocket-change prices. There are no bankruptcy concerns, and even a lull in subscriber growth is unlikely to derail Sirius XM's profitability.

Pain at the pump may also be a good thing for satellite radio. There are no more Cash for Clunkers rebates, but skyrocketing prices should drive owners of older gas guzzlers without satellite receivers to trade in their jalopies for fuel-efficient hybrids that have factory-installed Sirius or XM receivers.

The employment picture is also improving, putting more drivers on the road as unemployment levels continue to drop.

These favorable headwinds don't mean that Sirius XM investors can rest easy. Economic recovery or not, if gas prices do get out of whack commuters will consider the mass transit, biking, and carpool alternatives.

In short, Sirius XM is built to withstand slightly higher gasoline prices in an improving economy. It's another matter entirely if pesky oil prices result in cars parked in the driveway.

Forget Pandora. Skyrocketing fuel prices are the real Pandora's box.

Do you think Sirius XM can withstand a surge in gas prices? Share your thoughts in the comment box below.

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General Motors is a Motley Fool Inside Value selection. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz is a subscriber to both Sirius and XM. He does not own shares in any of the stocks in this article. He is also a member of the Rule Breakers analytical team, seeking out the next great growth stock early in its defiance. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2011, at 10:08 AM, 1crazyhorse wrote:

    This guy in on crack!

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2011, at 10:09 AM, mardom31 wrote:

    Spot on - high fuel prices have people like me going out to buy a new 40 mpg + vehicle with satellite radio. Could not be in a vehicle w/o it.

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2011, at 10:12 AM, wrigmar wrote:

    Rick - lets be realistic. Are the people that migrate towards satellite radio, really going to start using mass transit and stop driving less??????? Are they going to stop buying coffee, bottled water, movies, and every other thing disposable income is used for? If you recall, a survey came out last year showing satellite radio subscribers are highly educated and in a higher income bracket. I doubt that the cost of gas is really going to alter the spending habits of that demographic very much. Now, if you are Pandora and trying to sell subscriptions, you may have a problem. The people that flock to the free alternatives, well, that is pretty much what they can afford. You are barking up the wrong tree on this one. Stop with the fear mongering, as you are pulling yourself down to the level of the other idiots that post crap on MF and SA.

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2011, at 10:21 AM, Austin77478 wrote:

    Rick, your analysis of the following quote is right on the money. "Pain at the pump may also be a good thing for satellite radio. There are no more Cash for Clunkers rebates, but skyrocketing prices should drive owners of older gas guzzlers without satellite receivers to trade in their jalopies for fuel-efficient hybrids that have factory-installed Sirius or XM receivers." The article was fairly written IMHO.

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2011, at 10:27 AM, crankly09 wrote:

    Rick- Yet another idiotic post. Everyone above is correct...the SIRI/XM crowd are car drivers, not subway commuters. I just bought a car last week with Sxm, as did my father in law. My wife has Sxm and she will use it as long as she drives as well.

    Please see if the Seeking Alpha big wigs will give you a $10 per post raise and let you write about something else???

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2011, at 10:27 AM, kit818 wrote:

    My husband and I just traded in an Escalade for a well-kept and beautiful 2007 Mercedes about a year ago. It does not have satellite radio, and we are thinking about getting it. I am sure we will, because it will save on the cost and hassle of taking care of CDs. I don't want to spend time downloading music and I like a variety of music---so, it seems the EASIEST way to listen to all the kinds of music we enjoy (without interruption) is satellite radio.

    Does anyone agree?

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2011, at 10:31 AM, vesprito01 wrote:

    Oil closed at a 29-month high last week, and this is something that Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) shareholders can't ignore.

    siri $ 1.83 . Ignore and ignorance go hand in hand

    for you. stick with it. Do people stop listening to their radio when they are driving ??? even if its less than before gas price went up. If anything they listen more to keep up with the fast moving events..

    Another insulting comment by you to Siri investers.

    - Emotional Investing: The Case of Sirius XM .

    There is no emotion there at all ,We the investors have been holding fast since Siri was at .25 cents and have made millions and will continue to make more millions with intelligent monitoring off the facts, No fiction or if this happens or that happens as you would have the investment community believe. Revenue up, Subs up, Debt. down. Auto production up.

    SIRI long and strong

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2011, at 10:33 AM, Valuestocksonly wrote:

    You sold in the $1.60 range. Right Rick? I do not know why i bother to say anything but, SIRI has gained customers in every environment.

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2011, at 10:41 AM, tjtoretire wrote:

    People are out buying new cars. New car sales are up regardless of gas prices. Some like high mileage gas savers and others don't care. Keep in mind gas prices go up and down consistently. This article implies gas prices will remain high. Wasn't crude oil at $60 barrell not long ago?

    The quality of Sirius content is exceptional and keeps getting better all the time. It's a great service at a low cost.

    Transit systems are cutting service due to reduced tax revenue. Not buying a car to take the bus happens very rarely anyway.

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2011, at 10:53 AM, southernbeachguy wrote:

    Rick, I think you have raised a legitimate concern. If gas prices stay high for an extended time, Sirus will lose some subscribers as a method to cut back on cost. I myself will cut back on $15 at Starbucks or the Cheesecake Factory before I stop Sirus. I think the bigger worry may be new subs, us that have had Sirus/XM for any length will find a way to give up something else. We can't live without Sirus!

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2011, at 11:09 AM, therealdeal2011 wrote:

    another anti-sirius article written by a fool.

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2011, at 11:21 AM, rab6793 wrote:

    Wow, I have NEVER posted on fool.com before. But believe me when i say that I read every single piece of rubbish that is written here about SIRI.

    What is it with you FOOLS (fools.com) that no matter what is happening in the world, it some how will always comeback to the ultimate DESTRUCTION of SIRI!???

    Seriously!! If you don't like the stock, then leave it alone and write about another one. We are all sick and tired of your constant abuse on the stock. But i for one am happy that FOOLS like you keep reasoning and talking trash about it.

    But i will conclude by saying, that since I first jumped in on it at .90, you FOOLS have done nothing more but indirectly PROMOTE IT, with all your bashing and ignorant statements! And for that (constant) FOOLISH move on your behalf, I THANK YOU!!

    LONG LIVE SIRI!!

    Now go do some real work and research!

    Thank you very much!!

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2011, at 11:30 AM, bottomfisherman wrote:

    I agree that with rising gas prices the party is over if they stick for all not just SIRI which I hold in my portfolio. People will begin to have to cut costs and cut out descretionary items that would also include online subscriptions to Video games. Patiently waiting on how the price of gas will also be bad for the bottom line of that MF darling ATVI (flounder IMHO) or should I not hold my breath lol.

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2011, at 11:36 AM, David369 wrote:

    Rick, it doesn't matter what you say about SIRI, you are damned if you do and damned if you dont'. Either way, another good article even if I don't agree 100 percent. Keep up the good work!

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2011, at 11:48 AM, millewk wrote:

    I'm not going into the give and take on Sirius/XM's viability. I did buy just 30000 shares at 15 cents simply because I was a subscriber and liked the service. I now have 3 year subscriptions in both my vehicles for one reason only....content. Will gas prices have an impact on Sirius? Possibly short term; however, I still think they have the best product! My point here is, as an investor, If I listened to the talking heads, naysayers, pundits who have been giving "stock and financial advice I would have missed the greatest investing opportunitiy of our lifetimes! While Everyone was wringing their hands and listening to terms like, "the new normal", "Green shoots", and analysts purported to know but really don't, I bought. While I was averaging down and buying a few soild stocks and funds in early 2009, people and "analysts" where waiting for the sky to fall. I bought sirius on a lark because of their product and will hold on for the foreseeable future. If I lose, so be it....although I don't think I have much to worry about.

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2011, at 11:56 AM, rab6793 wrote:

    Is it just me, or is Apple still selling iphones, Ipdas, and McBook like candy?? Samething for most Android based phones, Plasma/LCD TVs, Notebooks.

    Shouldn't all these people be saving money in order to pay for gas?? (according to this article!?).

    Hmm... lets take a quick look at math Rick (hopefully you do KNOW how to add)

    15$ p/m for SIRI = 180$ a year

    Hmm Should i even bother breaking down the prices for the Ipdas, Iphone, MacBook, Android phones, LCD Tvs per one or two years??? I think (and please dont let me down Rick) you are smart enough to the math.

    But I guess you are right, this is an awesome article.....for any fool who knows nothing about common sense.

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2011, at 1:36 PM, motleymarty wrote:

    To kit818: I do not have a car, went with Sirius because terrestrial radio so poor. The variety of programming is enormous. You will not be disappointed

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2011, at 2:04 PM, mbl1234 wrote:

    Agree with the article. Last time gas went to $4.50 a gallon, I was looking for ways to cut my expenses. At the time I was on my second free extension of XM, which I eventually cancelled. Had I still been paying, it would have been the first thing to go. The music was getting repetetive (I've heard it's worse now that the Sirius bean counters are running things), and none of the other programming was worth the cost. An extended period of high gas prices would wind up costing Sirius many subscribers who have a 'borderline' interest in it.

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2011, at 3:22 PM, motleymarty wrote:

    mbl1234: Were you only listening to ONE channel - is that why the programming was "repetitive"? I mostly listen to Bloomberg, but also music channels. I have no interest so far in "talk radio". "Borderline interest" I think applies only to those who don't understand the sheer volume and variety of programming. Deepak Chopra was on last weekend. Charlie Rose is on Bloomberg in the evening - oops, I guess I do listen to talk radio. There are also university lectures--I don't have the list handy--but Sirius is NOT ONLY A MUSIC SATRAD PLATFORM!

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2011, at 4:29 PM, kmacattack wrote:

    If you read this entire article, about 2 minutes worth, I think you will find that Rick gave a vote of confidence to SIRI, they aren't going bankrupt, the stock price isn't going to plummet,etc. In other words, he's convinced, as am I, that SIRI is "over the hump" and in business for the long haul. There are so many ways that SIRI can grow exponentially and they now have the credit rating, the financial backing and the outstanding management to weather a storm if needed. Siri is doing all the right things to grow and prosper and they can easliy adjust their business model, i.e. adding a "free" or low cost commercially sponsored "SIRI light" version to a market of another 20 million cars who have the equipment already on board. The foreign market potential is huge, 4 billion people in Asia alone, without adding a huge amount of overhead to reach that market. Then there's Europe, Mexico, etc.

  • Report this Comment On March 08, 2011, at 12:48 PM, dubyaisafairy wrote:

    it's a total waste of valuable time to read and comment on these fluff nonsense pieces that are cranked out daily. these writers have to write something. we don't have to waste our time on it. i won't be any more.

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