Recs

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Why Wall Street Should Love VSE

Margins matter. The more VSE (Nasdaq: VSEC  ) keeps of each buck it earns in revenue, the more money it has to invest in growth, fund new strategic plans, or (gasp!) distribute to shareholders. Healthy margins often separate pretenders from the best stocks in the market.  That's why I check on my holdings' margins at least once a quarter. I'm looking for the absolute numbers, comparisons to sector peers and competitors, and any trend that may tell me how strong VSE's competitive position could be.

Here's the current margin snapshot for VSE and some of its sector and industry peers and direct competitors.

Company

TTM Gross Margin

TTM Operating Margin

TTM Net Margin

VSE

4.7%

4.5%

2.7%

Stantec (NYSE: STN  )

56.1%

11%

7.6%

Tetra Tech (Nasdaq: TTEK  )

19.3%

8.4%

5.3%

TRC Companies (NYSE: TRR  )

15.2%

0%

(6.6%)

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Unfortunately, that table doesn't tell us much about where VSE has been, or where it's going. A company with rising gross and operating margins often fuels its growth by increasing demand for its products. If it sells more units while keeping costs in check, its profitability increases. Conversely, a company with gross margins that inch downward over time is often losing out to competition, and possibly engaging in a race to the bottom on prices. If it can't make up for this problem by cutting costs -- and most companies can't -- then both the business and its shares face a decidedly bleak outlook.

Of course, over the short term, the kind of economic shocks we recently experienced can drastically affect a company's profitability. That's why I like to look at five fiscal years' worth of margins, along with the results for the trailing 12 months (TTM), the last fiscal year, and last fiscal quarter (LFQ). You can't always reach a hard conclusion about your company's health, but you can better understand what to expect, and what to watch.

Here's the margin picture for VSE over the past few years.

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. Dollar amounts in millions. FY= fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

(Because of seasonality in some businesses, the numbers for the last period on the right -- the TTM figures -- aren't always comparable to the FY results preceding them.)

Here's how the stats break down:

  • Over the past five years, gross margin peaked at 4.7% and averaged 3.7%. Operating margin peaked at 4.5% and averaged 3.6%. Net margin peaked at 2.7% and averaged 2.2%.
  • TTM gross margin is 4.7%, 100 basis points better than the five-year average. TTM operating margin is 4.5%, 90 basis points better than the five-year average. TTM net margin is 2.7%, 50 basis points better than the five-year average.

With TTM operating and net margins at a 5-year high, VSE looks like it's doing great.

If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're probably ahead of 95% of the market's individual investors. To stay ahead, learn more about how I use analysis like this to help me uncover the best returns in the stock market. Got an opinion on the margins at VSE? Let us know in the comments below.

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Seth Jayson had no position in any company mentioned here at the time of publication. You can view his stock holdings here. He is co-advisor of Motley Fool Hidden Gems, which provides new small-cap ideas every month, backed by a real-money portfolio. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


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  • Report this Comment On April 01, 2011, at 12:41 PM, lehmanad wrote:

    Seth,

    First off, good analysis. Margins are growing primarily because the Company is performing more of the work it used to subcontract out.

    I originally sold VSEC at $27.25. I read through the 10k, and it may not be as bad as the market’s original reaction. I purchased again at $28.

    Here’s the 10k- http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?f...

    My summary:

    1. They took a $4M reserve on a contract (see p. 27 of 10k) where the contract had not been approved by the gov’t but most likely will be. If you added $4m to net income, shows a good trend.

    2. March 4, 2011- Insiders purchase .3% more so not substantial but still an increase. Also, they gave out restricted stock at 3/4/11 based on YE operating results. Officers and executives sold a portion of their stock to pay the tax.

    3. Revenue is down b/c less subcontract low margin work, but net income did not drop as much b/c they are doing more work themselves at a higher margin

    4. Wondered why they have debt. They purchased Akimeka in Aug 2010 for $33M and financed $11M of the purchase. I can live with 33% debt on an acquisition. It is scheduled to be paid off in 3 years. They did the same thing with their previous purchase.

    a. I believe Akimeka made $2M of Net Income in 09 and hopefully will grow. Akimeka I believe relates to health records, and G & B who they purchased in 09 relates to Social Security and other software.

    b. $2M of Net Income on $33M doesn’t seem that good, but they had an earnout provision, where if Akimeka met certain goals they would have to pay Akimeka $11M more. They accrued $8M at 12/31/10, present value. I calculated that they are anticipating paying $9.5M (ignoring PV), which means Akimeka is going to meet 80% of the goal. Seems like a positive acquisition.

    c. You used to record the earnout when paid (to goodwill), but now, it is recorded as a liability when the Company is purchase, so the Company’s liabilities are higher under the new standards. It is money they probably will have to pay but only if the Company they buy hits earnings targets.

    d. For G & B, they have hit all the targets and paid the entire earn-out amount for the 1st 2 years $1.4M per year, and probably will pay $1.4M for 2011. Recorded in goodwill.

    e. On the acquisition they paid $800k of transaction expenses. Again, if you took away this one off expense, would’ve showed an increase in net income.

    5. Company does $20M of revenue in Egypt that was suspended

    6. Summary- 2 global items impact this as well.

    a. Gov’t budget uncertainty and potential defense cuts. Akimeka and G & B are attempts to diversify into IT, Energy, and Management consulting. The earnouts will show if they are gaining traction.

    b. P. 25 talks about 2 contracts the Company won that could result in up to $2.5B apiece over the next 10 years. G & B is a female-owned company which may have been a requirement for the bid. They are one of 4 subcontractors on one contract and one of 5 subcontractors on the other contract.

    Summary:

    I believe they are $4.8M of expense that will not recur. Along with Akimeka accretion, I believe they should be able to hold the line in net income. Ran a discounted cash flow on VSEC at moneychimp.com. Assumptions:

    Growth next 5- 0%

    Growth after- 0%

    Discount rate- 10%

    Values the Company at $45.60. Basically, if the Company can just hold the line, discounted cash flow would say they are worth $45.60. The market is pricing in net income declines.

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Related Tickers

5/23/2013 4:00 PM
VSEC $34.23 Up +0.13 +0.38%
VSE Corp CAPS Rating: *****
TTEK $27.87 Down +0.00 +0.00%
Tetra Tech, Inc. CAPS Rating: *****
TRR $5.43 Down -0.03 -0.55%
TRC Companies, Inc… CAPS Rating: No stars
STN $43.50 Down -0.09 -0.21%
Stantec, Inc. (USA… CAPS Rating: *****

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