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Toyota: Uncertainty Looms Ahead

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The Japanese crisis dealt a severe blow to automakers around the world. Factories in Japan had to be shut down, leading to parts shortages across the world and hampered production. The greatest impact was felt at home as Japanese automakers were forced to make significant cuts to production in the first quarter.

In an earlier article, I touched upon how Japanese automakers might struggle after the quake. The impact of the crisis was visible as Japan's leading automaker Toyota's (NYSE: TM  ) profits plunged nearly 77% in the first calendar quarter this year. This was in line with fellow car maker Honda's (NYSE: HMC  ) results, whose quarterly profits fell by 38%. Let us now take a look at how Toyota performed in the first calendar quarter of 2011, its year ending quarter.

The road to recovery
Although the crisis in Japan happened only a few weeks before the quarter ended, the impact was huge as parts suppliers in Japan were all but wiped out, halting production out of Japan. The impact was such that the operating income fell by over half a billion in the quarter.

Toyota was slowly and steadily recovering from the massive recalls as it nearly doubled its yearly earnings but the quake put its production schedule off track. Toyota has since managed to ramp up production, sooner than expected. However, it shied away from forecasting anything about the future, at least until production was stable again. Toyota missed production on close to 900,000 vehicles, both in Japan and overseas, with production dropping almost 50% post the quake.

Renewed hope
There is some positive news ahead for Toyota. The automaker plans to restore close to 70% of its production by June, two months earlier than what it had initially predicted. In North America, it was operating at only 30% of its total capacity, in an effort to save parts, due to the shortages.

Lost opportunity
Hopefully, Toyota can return back to full capacity in order to take advantage of the surge in demand for more fuel efficient cars, following the oil price surge. Its U.S. rivals Ford (NYSE: F  ) and General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) have profited hugely from this demand rise. GM saw its year-on-year profits almost triple, whereas Ford posted its highest first quarter profits in nearly 13 years, aided in part by high sales of its hybrid and fuel-efficient offerings.

Before the crisis, Toyota and Honda's hybrids were in great demand, especially Toyota's popular Prius. If Toyota can get back to full production or at least somewhere close to that, it would be able to satiate the high demand for fuel-efficient vehicles. Returning to normal production levels will come as good new for auto parts complementors such as Goodyear (NYSE: GT  ) as well, who found themselves hurt by the fallout from the Japanese disaster. Look for these companies to generate some impressive growth figures when demand finally resumes.

The Foolish bottom line
Toyota has had a tough start to the year. Hopefully, with its recovery back on track, it can hope for a better year ahead. But only time will tell how well and how swiftly it would be able to improve its numbers.

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Shubh Datta doesn't own any shares in the companies mentioned above. The Motley Fool owns shares of Ford Motor. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended Ford Motor and General Motors. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


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Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On May 19, 2011, at 11:58 PM, Jazzenjohn1 wrote:

    You mention that TM missed production on 900,000 cars, what quarter will that be felt in? With roughly a 45 day supply, wouldn't it be apparent in the second and third quarters of this calendar year?

    With the Tsunami hitting at the very end of the quarter, what was the real reason they did so poorly in the first calendar quarter?

    There have been many stories about how "American" they are and the high content of some very specific models, but my research indicates that As Companies, they have only about 45% American content where the 3 domestic automakers are all well above 80% with Ford at nearly 90% American content. Is that why the domestic automakers are relatively unaffected by the tsunami where HMC and TM are getting clobbered?

    They will get tsunami replacement sales from their protected home market, but Suzuki seems like it will challenge them there.

  • Report this Comment On October 11, 2011, at 11:10 PM, MHedgeFundTrader wrote:

    Today Toyota, the world’s largest car maker, has been slammed by the perfect storm that has taken its shares down a gut churning 60% from its 2008 peak. They took eight years to find a defect in an American made accelerator component that caused thousands of accidents, and dozens of deaths, forcing a worldwide recall of 10 million vehicles.

    To me, this all adds up to a great screaming “BUY.” You can start with the recall, the largest in history, covering eight models, which promises to be speedy, lavish and generous. It prompted a production shut down, an unprecedented measure in auto history. The company is going all out to reinforce customer loyalty. Toyota still makes great cars. And let’s face it, many people would rather die than drive an American car.

    There are a few additional angles here. Since the company is Japan’s largest exporter, it would benefit greatly from any weakness in the yen, which I consider as the world’s most overpriced currency. Think of the stock as a long dated yen put. Look at the charts for Ford, US cars sales, and the palladium used for catalytic converters, and it is obvious that the world is seeing a surge in global car sales.

    I know the philosophy, and the strengths of this company intimately, and they will come roaring back. Let the ruckus over the recall burn out, and add Toyota to your “buy on dips” list. Keep in mind that this is not a day trade, but something to bury in your portfolio and then lose behind the radiator. It will also not be immune from the calamities that strike the stock market.

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