British drugmaker Shire (Nasdaq: SHPGY ) and actor Charlie Sheen have something in common: Neither can stay out of the news. Let's see if Shire is making #winning moves or if it needs to be Ashton Kutcher'd out of your portfolio.
Shire actually kicked off its busy May at the end of April, reporting a solid first quarter where revenue and earnings beat estimates, although R&D costs remain on the upper end of guidance. The most explosive growth belonged to Gaucher disease treatment Vpriv, with sales rising more than 900%, but it could face cheaper competition in the future, most notably from Protalix BioTherapeutics' (AMEX: PLX ) Uplyso. The real key to the beat: Sales from top drug Vyvanse jumped 31% and runner-up Adderall XR increased 21%.
And the company isn't resting on its laurels. Three or four potential new indications for Vyvanse, each of which could spur $1 billion to $2 billion in sales, could eventually dwarf the drug's prolific ADHD business.
Don't think this has gone unnoticed by Big Pharma. Shire sits in a position where it could be increasingly attractive to a major pharmaceutical concerned about declining revenue and vanishing patents. AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN ) , which so far hasn't participated in the recent round of megamergers, is the likeliest candidate. Yet Shire isn't going to sit by and just get gobbled up; it is actively pursuing a growth-by-acquisition strategy of its own.
Enter Advanced BioHealing. The biotech was set to make its big debut last week, but was snatched up before average investors ever got a chance to see the company in public trading. For $750 million, an estimated 19% over what Advanced BioHealing was expected to debut at, Shire got itself Dermagraft, a treatment for diabetic foot ulcers now and potentially venous leg ulcers down the road.
Smith & Nephew (NYSE: SNN ) struggled to make Dermagraft a success before ultimately ceding it to Advanced BioHealing, but Shire thinks it can make a better go at it. Analysts seem to agree, although don't expect it to impact 2011 operations. Remember, Dermagraft has only 5% penetration in what could be a $3 billion market. This is a purchase that should help Shire achieve its aggressive growth targets down the road while giving the company a specialized product unlikely to face generic competition.
Finally, we come to Cubist Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: CBST ) . Things are looking up for Cubist after holding off Teva's (Nasdaq: TEVA ) attempt to launch a generic version of the antibiotic Cubicin and signing a marketing deal with Optimer Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: OPTR ) for antibiotic Dificid. British papers have been putting out reports that the small biotech is "in play," mentioning partner AstraZeneca as a sensible suitor. Recent rumors indicate that Shire could get into the action, but I'm skeptical. The talks between the two companies allegedly occurred months ago, with Shire offering roughly $2 billion. After pouncing on Advanced BioHealing in the interim, digesting something larger could strain Shire. While Cubist's pipeline has some interesting candidates, at this time for Shire, I'm not sure the juice is worth the squeeze.
Foolish bottom line
At the end of the day, I think Shire is making solid moves. Shares have gone on a big run, so this is probably not the best time to start a position, but those who already hold shares will likely be safe as long as the firm doesn't overreach on acquisitions. Shire itself could be featured in a megamerger, but investors shouldn't bank on that. Instead, focus on Shire's strong operating numbers, which feature healthy margins and strong revenue growth over the past three years. In an industry struggling with the patent cliff, that's about as good as it gets.
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