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Does Gap Pass Buffett's Test?

We'd all like to invest like the legendary Warren Buffett, turning thousands into millions or more. Buffett analyzes companies by calculating return on invested capital in order to help determine whether a company has an economic moat -- the ability to earn returns on its money above that money's cost.

ROIC is perhaps the most important metric in value investing. By determining a company's ROIC, you can see how well it's using the cash you entrust to it, and whether it's actually creating value for you. Simply put, it divides a company's operating profit by how much investment it took to get that profit:

ROIC = Net operating profit after taxes / Invested capital

(We've got more details about this formula, if you're curious.)

This one-size-fits-all calculation cuts out many of the legal accounting tricks (such as excessive debt) that managers use to boost earnings numbers, and provides you with an apples-to-apples way to evaluate businesses, even across industries. The higher the ROIC, the more efficiently the company uses capital.

Ultimately, we're looking for companies that can invest their money at rates higher than the cost of capital, which for most businesses lands between 8% and 12%. Ideally, we want to see ROIC exceeding 12% at minimum, coupled with a history of steady or increasing returns, which indicate some durability to the company's economic moat.

Let's take a look at Gap (NYSE: GPS  ) and three of its industry peers, to see how efficiently they use cash. Here are the ROIC figures for each company over a few periods.

Company

TTM

1 Year Ago

3 Years Ago

5 Years Ago

Gap 32.9% 35.3% 23.1% 26.2%
Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD  ) 22.1% 15.4% 10.8% 17.5%
Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL  ) 18.9% 18.3% 14.1% 15.0%
Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO  ) 60.3% 97.1% 48.3% 42.3%

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

Gap has increased its returns on invested capital from five years ago, suggesting that its competitive position is growing stronger. Remarkably, all four of these companies have increased their returns over the same period.

Businesses with consistently high ROIC can prove that they're efficiently using capital. They also have the ability to treat shareholders well, because they can then use their extra cash to pay us dividends, buy back shares, or further invest in their franchise. Warren Buffett has long loved healthy and growing dividends -- and you should, too.

For more successful investments, dig a little deeper than the earnings headlines to find the company's ROIC. If you'd like to add these companies to your watchlist or set up a new watchlist, just click here.

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Jim Royal, Ph.D. owns shares of Aeropostale. The Motley Fool owns shares of Aeropostale and Limited Brands. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

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  • Report this Comment On June 17, 2011, at 3:06 PM, rhuntjr wrote:

    Great point about ROIC. The concept of value creation is really simple--a company creates value when it earns a return on capital above its cost of capital. Nothing else matters; not EPS, and certainly nothing like EBITDA. The ROIC concept is simple but the calculation takes a lot of work. To make ROIC truly comparable across companies, it requires a deep dive into several years worth of a company's 10-K.

    With Gap, for example, it appears that you are excluding a major source of capital from your calculation: the off-balance sheet debt financing of their stores. Gap could open up 100 new stores and not put a single one on its balance sheet. Meanwhile, an oil driller can acquire 100 new rigs and account for them as capital leases, which requires them to be capitalized onto the balance sheet. These economically similar transactions will render your ROICs for these two companies incomparable and not useful.

    Capitalizing Gap's operating leases brings its ROIC closer to 15% than 30% and makes it comparable to all companies, regardless of how they finance and account for their capital expenditures.

    Here's a link to an interesting report on the prevalence and magnitude of off-balance sheet operating leases in Russell 3000 companies.

    http://blog.newconstructs.com/2010/10/20/new-special-red-fla...

    --

    That being said, Gap's ROIC of around 15% is still quite impressive: it ranks in the top 15% of all companies. Moreover, the stock is super cheap. The current stock price implies that cash flows will fall off a cliff and never recover. In fact, cash flows could drop by almost 40% and the stock is still worth $17/share. I think Mr. Buffett would agree that a 40% discount to current cash flows is a pretty significant margin of safety.

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Related Tickers

5/25/2012 4:00 PM
GPS $27.16 Up +0.17 +0.63%
Gap CAPS Rating: **
RL $149.84 Up +1.16 +0.78%
Polo Ralph Lauren… CAPS Rating: **
LTD $46.41 Up +0.47 +1.02%
Limited Brands Inc… CAPS Rating: ***
ARO $19.19 Up +0.17 +0.89%
Aeropostale, Inc. CAPS Rating: ****

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