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The 20 Fastest Growers in Software

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Why are investors willing to pay only 10 times earnings for some stocks, but 20, 50, even 100 times earnings for others?

The short answer: growth. Companies that can grow their earnings meaningfully could make lofty current P/E ratios look cheap in hindsight.

Of course, any company can promise a rosy, growth-rich future. Figuring out which companies can actually deliver is far trickier. In this series, I take the first step by identifying companies that have put up the best growth track records in their respective sectors.

Below, I've listed the top 20 sales growers in software and services over the last five years. Here's how to interpret each data column.

  • Five-year sales growth: I rank each company's sales growth, to capture its pure trailing expansion without regard to the vagaries of earnings.
  • Five-year EPS growth: Since sales growth means nothing if it doesn't ultimately fall to the bottom line, I've also included each company's five-year trailing EPS growth rate.
  • Five-year analyst estimates: This column shows us how much EPS growth analysts expect over the next five years. Just keep in mind that analysts tend to grossly overestimate a company's prospects.
  • Five-year ROIC range: Return on invested capital basically shows you how efficiently a company is converting its debt and equity into profits. We want companies that can do a lot with a little. By looking at the five-year range, we can start to gauge both the power and the consistency of a company's profit engine.

    Company

    5-Year Sales Growth

    5-Year EPS Growth

    5-Year Analyst Estimates

    5-Year ROIC Range

    Solera Holdings (NYSE: SLH  )

    48.4%

    NM

    17.2%

    1.8% / 9.1%

    Ebix (Nasdaq: EBIX  )

    43.5%

    59.3%

    17.1%

    12.2% / 17.0%

    AsiaInfo-Linkage (Nasdaq: ASIA  )

    38.5%

    NM

    14.3%

    1.6% / 11.6%

    salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM  )

    37.3%

    4.9%

    28.2%

    0.3% / 8.2%

    Nuance Communications (Nasdaq: NUAN  )

    31.4%

    NM

    13.8%

    0.6% / 2.5%

    Concur Technologies (Nasdaq: CNQR  )

    30.0%

    (32.4%)

    24.8%

    1.5% / 6.8%

    Pegasystems (Nasdaq: PEGA  )

    28.6%

    9.5%

    24.2%

    (1.0% )/ 11.4%

    Ansys (Nasdaq: ANSS  )

    26.8%

    47.2%

    16.1%

    8.3% / 14.0%

    Synchronoss Technologies (Nasdaq: SNCR  )

    26.5%

    (29.7%)

    25.7%

    4.2% / 16.1%

    Taleo (Nasdaq: TLEO  )

    25.9%

    NM

    19.8%

    (3.8%) / 0.6%

    Blackboard (Nasdaq: BBBB  )

    25.8%

    (72.2%)

    21.6%

    0.6% / 5.6%

    JDA Software (Nasdaq: JDAS  )

    25.4%

    63.5%

    12.0%

    6.0% / 8.2%

    NetScout Systems (Nasdaq: NTCT  )

    24.0%

    30.6%

    15.6%

    0.2% / 9.0%

    Kenexa (Nasdaq: KNXA  )

    23.7%

    NM

    19.4%

    (0.4%) / 7.8%

    ClickSoftware Technologies (Nasdaq: CKSW  )

    23.5%

    NM

    37.7%

    3.2% / 26.5%

    Interactive Intelligence (Nasdaq: ININ  )

    22.4%

    32.7%

    21.4%

    10.5% / 18.8%

    Ultimate Software Group (Nasdaq: ULTI  )

    19.7%

    (1.4%)

    25.3%

    (4.2%) / 9.4%

    Informatica Corporation (Nasdaq: INFA  )

    19.2%

    20.7%

    17.8%

    5.5% / 11.1%

    Descartes Systems (Nasdaq: DSGX  )

    17.7%

    19.4%

    24.9%

    2.9% / 5.3%

    NICE Systems (Nasdaq: NICE  )

    15.7%

    (1.6%)

    20.0%

    2.3% / 3.6%

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. NM = not meaningful; EPS growth that is NM results from losses during the period.

Use the table above as a first step to help you generate ideas for your own further research. Once you identify stocks worth a closer look, the following three steps will help you further assess their growth prospects:

  • Carefully study the table for possible danger signs, such as high sales growth but low EPS growth, analyst growth expectations significantly trailing past growth, and low ROIC figures. Then follow the trail.
  • Find out how the company achieved its prior growth: organically, or via acquisition? Can it sustain that previous growth?
  • Pay attention to how management plans to implement its growth plans. Does its strategy seem prudent and plausible to you?

Remember: The more profitable, efficient, and predictable growth a company can achieve, the more we investors should be willing to pay.

Learn more about any of the stocks that interest you by adding them to our My Watchlist tool. You'll get access to all the latest Motley Fool analysis, organized by company.

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Anand Chokkavelu doesn't own shares of any company mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of Ebix. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Blackboard, Interactive Intelligence Group, Pegasystems, Nuance Communications, Informatica, Ebix, and salesforce.com. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended shorting salesforce.com. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On September 12, 2011, at 6:02 PM, rhuntjr wrote:

    Why are investors willing to pay 600 times earnings for stocks like CRM? How about irrationality? As Charlie Munger always says, "Always invert." If you invert, then you can judge whether the answer is growth or simple irrationality.

    In other words, what kind of performance is required by CRM to justify its PE Ratio of 600? CRM's current stock price implies that cash flows will grow by a stunning 35% per year compounded annually for the next 10 years. Only THREE large cap companies have achieved that kind of growth over the past decade (EBAY, JNPR, and BRCD). Furthermore, thanks to its expensive acquisitions of Jigsaw Data and Heroku in 2011, the company is actually destroying shareholder value.

    Sure, there may be growth ahead for CRM--but given the extreme scenario currently priced into the stock and the value-destroying performance of the business, investors should stay far away from the stock.

    Expectations investing is a powerful concept that allows you to truly understand the performance requirements embedded in a stock. If you want more information on this concept, see this blog post:

    http://blog.newconstructs.com/2010/05/19/how-to-make-money-p...

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