Check This to Find Out Whether Antares Pharma Will Bomb

• Report this Comment On September 13, 2011, at 2:17 PM, yazzbro wrote:

  This is kind of an funny article but, AIS is a speculative pharm company. Speculative investors aren't so much interested in fundamentals so much as we are interested in hearing about topline results, NDA's, FDA approvals, mergers, acquasitions and partnerships with Big Pharm companies. So having suspect DSO or AR numbers are pretty meaningless. What is meaningful is whether or not AIS gets FDA approval for their Anturol Drug for overactive bladders and if Libigel gets topline results both which are coming this December. If AIS gets good news from both the DSO and AR number will be the last thing on our minds. The $20 a share jump will be the first thing on our minds though.

• Report this Comment On September 13, 2011, at 5:29 PM, noamps wrote:

  Is this supposed to be a joke or just a foolish writer? :-)

  Do you really compare a small company with 13mm annual sales to Billion dollars companies.

  So, just in case, here is a write up from Tappy on the Yahoo message board and SA board:

  AIS is my largest holding, by far: And I have been successfully

  investing in small/ micro cap stocks for over 40 years.

  Reason is an anticipated return of at least 5 X my investment

  within 12-24 months (double that return perhaps 5 years out;

  and in the case of AIS- if not sooner acquired by a major like

  TEVA or Watson) AND with almost no risk to capital at these

  prices.

  In other words it is the best risk / reward investment I have

  seen in several years:

  He devotes a good deal of time explaining past finances. AIS is

  a company in the very early stages of transitioning from an R & D

  company (not expected to have significant revenue and expected to

  lose money) to one which is commercializing their products. The

  only relevance is the success of their Research and Development;

  their partnerships and business going forward; and the demonstration

  that management is very smart and focused on profitability going

  forward.

  Mr. Ray talks about Anturol. I made my financial models some time

  ago and thought Anturol would contribute $10 million in annual

  royalties to AIS. Now that a licensing deal has been completed:

  considering the quality of the Licensees who is Watson. They have

  a Gel OAB product called Gelnique which produces about $50-60

  million in sales for Watson. It is thought that Anturol (a superior

  product) will replace Gelnique for Watson and that gives AIS a

  few benefits. 1. Gives Antruol a superb marketer with Watson

  having over 200 reps on the street. 2. Eliminates competition from

  Gelnquie. 3. Gives AIS an immediate royalty stream on the revenue

  now produced by Gennique.

  Two very smart analysts issued a report just after the Watson deal

  was announced> Ladenberg-Thalmann predicted peak Anturol revenues

  for AIS at $15 million a year and Oppenheimer said Antruol sales

  could reach $250 million and AIS royalty could run as high as 22%

  and this figures out to annual income to AIS of $55 million.

  LibiGel as an almost assured blockbuster drug (once and if approved)

  should provide AIS with $50+ million a year in royalty income from

  domestic sales.

  Elestrin will be a decent and continuing contributor. NesterGel could

  be a large contributor, but I have nothing income projections, as it

  is difficult at this time to quantify (but at worst it will be a decent

  contributor)

  Keep in mind that all of the above is from N. American sales only-

  and on all Gel products AIS has no commitments for the entire rest

  of the world. ALSO we just discussed recurring royalty income-

  from the Gel products (and the injectable's) AIS could earn tens

  of millions of dollars in up-front and milestone licensing fees.

  Despite the above most think (me included) that the injectable

  platform will greatly outperform the Gels. AIS injectable's are

  compatible with a $25 Billion bioequivelent/ biobetter market

  (slated to grow to $250 Billion in a few years) and with AIS being

  able to satisfy TEVA (who is the largest, smartest and best

  Generic company in the world) they have proven their "value

  added" piece of the puzzle.

  Finally AIS is transforming a part of their company from one which

  collects very substantial royalty income- to one which will develop and

  market their own products- thereby gaining a much larger piece of

  the pie. And that is with their highly applauded Methotrexate

  project which is low risk and low cost with potentially very high returns.

  I see AIS earning $100 million a year, beginning in the next few years

  with the only risk being a very small regulatory risk and the normal

  fluctuations of the (stock) market place.

  GOOD LUCK 1 Sep, 10:20 AM Edit0

• Report this Comment On September 14, 2011, at 3:40 PM, yazzbro wrote:

  noamp's be careful what you read from Seeking Alpha and even on here. There are a lot of so-called analyst's that go around plugging a stock big time hoping that their writings or articles pump up the price of the stock a few cents. These guys are known as pump dumpers. They pump up the stock by writing only positive things or loosly interpreted facts about the stock so it sounds like a for sure deal then they that positive press encourages people to buy subsequently raising the stock a few cents and then they dump. Often they are day traders or work for hedge funds etc.. Just be careful what you read. Do you own research before relying on what these clowns have to write. Remember, not everything written on these blogs is the truth. More othen than not they are out and out lies.

• Report this Comment On September 14, 2011, at 4:26 PM, yazzbro wrote:

  The thing that bothers me about AIS is that they are getting pretty low percentages when it comes to royalties so take a closer look at that. Most of the money from AIS's "Potential Blockbusters" are going to the companies agreeing to market and distribute the drugs. I do agree that AIS has some pretty interesting prospects in their pipeline but remember, the FDA can be strange and finnicky about what gets approved and what doesn't.

  "Intrinsa patch was produced in September 2004 by the companies Procter & Gamble and Watson Pharmaceutical. Food and Drug Administration advisory committee thumbed-down Intrinsa saying they were not pleased with the number of patients studied, the length of trials and modest benefits of the treatment. They explained longer-term safety data was needed."(FSD-New.org) Sound Familiar? AIS has Libigel which is very similar to Intrinsa (both based on testosterone). Intrinsa was a medication that was based on a patch(also easy to use) had good safety data, large test groups etc.. And yet the FDA said this wasn't good enough. The point I am trying to make, is just because something looks good the FDA might not think so. Like I said before, a similar medication to Libigel got shot down so it's plausable that it may happen again.

• Report this Comment On September 16, 2011, at 11:47 AM, georgehedwards wrote:

  I would expect more from Motley Fool than for them to publish an article from someone who is ignorant at best or michavellian at worst (with a hidden agenda) that seems intent on using such words as "bomb" in these trying times to lower a stock value with a very subjective analysis. After reading Mr. Jayson's article, I would have to question it's value and thereby deduce whether his intent was either malicious or self-serving in nature.

• Report this Comment On September 17, 2011, at 6:02 PM, noamps wrote:

  yazzbro.

  I have been long AIS in the last 3 years - same as tappy, so yes - he is pumping his position, but he is not dumping it.

  AIS is my best holding ever, but as you said in your first remark - is a speculative pharm company.

  looks to me like the author compare multi-billion dollar companies to a micro-cap (or at least a 200 million cap) company.

Add your comment.