Investors expect good returns. The more cash you get back for the amount you invested, the better your investment is. Same is true for the company you invest in. So, how do we find out whether a business is capable of generating superior returns?
The metric that matters: Return on invested capital
Growing bottom lines do not always guarantee good returns. More than earnings growth itself, it pays to find out how much has been invested into the business in order to generate that growth. This is where return on invested capital comes into play.
ROIC looks at earnings power relative to how much capital is tied up in a business. While a company's earnings may register growth, the return on invested capital might be declining. In other words, for every dollar of income generated, the company has to plough in more and more cash into the business over time. This is a warning sign. Unfortunately, investors fall into the trap of putting cash into companies that venture into less profitable projects. The result: The company requires more cash to generate the same returns.
Oil and gas companies have been through some tough times in the last five years. Volatility in energy prices has played a role in causing fluctuating bottom lines. But the fact is that these companies have sunk a lot of cash into investments by raising debt and equity. Therefore, it makes more economic sense to find out whether these investments are generating returns that investors expect. Today, we will see how Hess (NYSE: HES ) stacks up.
This is how invested capital, operating income, and ROIC stack up for the past six years:
Source: Capital IQ, a Standard & Poor's company. ROIC is author's calculation. All data presented here is for a 12-month period, ending June 30 of the corresponding year.
Invested capital has grown steadily in the last five years while returns have shown a progressive decline during the period. Hess' operations around the globe haven't been working in its favor. Suspension of its Libyan operations has also taken a toll on production this year. Additionally, its investment in Hovensa, a refining joint venture, hasn't been profitable.
These should definitely come across to investors as a potential yellow flag. Hess' management should work harder to increase shareholder returns.
In terms of competition, this is how Hess stacks up:
|
Company
|
Return on Invested Capital
|
Return on Equity
|
|
Hess
|
8.9%
|
16.3%
|
| Murphy Oil (NYSE: MUR ) |
9.5%
|
11.6%
|
| Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN ) |
8.3%
|
7.7%
|
| Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO ) |
12.7%
|
11.8%
|
Source: Capital IQ, a Standard & Poor's company; ROIC is author's calculation; figures are for the trailing 12 months.
Hess' returns aren't too impressive compared to that of its peers.
What's the return compared to the cost?
Unfortunately, ROIC alone can't tell you how well a company is operating. Invested capital comes at a cost. Investors should check whether returns on invested capital exceed that cost. The weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, tells us exactly that since both debt and equity are used for financing operations. Debt-to-equity currently stands at 29.3%.
Hess' after-tax interest expense or cost of debt stands at $244 million for the trailing-twelve-month period, which is more than 4% of its total debt. Expecting a 12% return from equity (beating the S&P 500's average 10% average historical return) is a fair expectation for this company given the risks involved in shale plays and the natural gas market.
Using this data, WACC adds up to 9.8%. This is higher than the ROIC of 8.9%. This is a potential red flag. Hess hasn't been able to build on shareholder value. The company has been investing in projects which generate returns that are below the rate investors expect.
Foolish bottom line
Exploration and production companies have sunk a lot of cash into investments during the past few years on which they are yet to fully realize gains. Hess' global investments might still generate higher returns. Still, investors can avoid possible pitfalls by finding out whether the company is capable of growing economically.
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