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Here's How Coca-Cola May Be Failing You

Margins matter. The more Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO  ) keeps of each buck it earns in revenue, the more money it has to invest in growth, fund new strategic plans, or (gasp!) distribute to shareholders. Healthy margins often separate pretenders from the best stocks in the market. That's why we check up on margins at least once a quarter in this series. I'm looking for the absolute numbers, comparisons to sector peers and competitors, and any trend that may tell me how strong Coca-Cola's competitive position could be.

Here's the current margin snapshot for Coca-Cola and some of its sector and industry peers and direct competitors.

Company

TTM Gross Margin

TTM Operating Margin

TTM Net Margin

Coca-Cola

60.9%

22.2%

27.6%

Hansen Natural (Nasdaq: HANS  )

52.2%

26.9%

16.8%

Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB  )

40.2%

17.6%

10.4%

PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP  )

53.2%

15.7%

9.9%

Source: S&P Capital IQ. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Unfortunately, that table doesn't tell us much about where Coca-Cola has been, or where it's going. A company with rising gross and operating margins often fuels its growth by increasing demand for its products. If it sells more units while keeping costs in check, its profitability increases. Conversely, a company with gross margins that inch downward over time is often losing out to competition, and possibly engaging in a race to the bottom on prices. If it can't make up for this problem by cutting costs -- and most companies can't -- then both the business and its shares face a decidedly bleak outlook.

Of course, over the short term, the kind of economic shocks we recently experienced can drastically affect a company's profitability. That's why I like to look at five fiscal years' worth of margins, along with the results for the trailing 12 months, the last fiscal year, and last fiscal quarter. You can't always reach a hard conclusion about your company's health, but you can better understand what to expect, and what to watch.

Here's the margin picture for Coca-Cola over the past few years.

anImage

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Because of seasonality in some businesses, the numbers for the last period on the right -- the TTM figures -- aren't always comparable to the FY results preceding them. To compare quarterly margins to their prior-year levels, consult this chart.

anImage

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FQ = fiscal quarter.

Here's how the stats break down:

  • Over the past five years, gross margin peaked at 66.1% and averaged 64.5%. Operating margin peaked at 27.6% and averaged 26.6%. Net margin peaked at 33.6% and averaged 23.1%.
  • TTM gross margin is 60.9%, 360 basis points worse than the five-year average. TTM operating margin is 22.2%, 440 basis points worse than the five-year average. TTM net margin is 27.6%, 450 basis points better than the five-year average.

With recent TTM operating margins below historical averages, Coca-Cola has some work to do.

If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're probably ahead of 95% of the market's individual investors. To stay ahead, learn more about how I use analysis like this to help me uncover the best returns in the stock market. Got an opinion on the margins at Coca-Cola? Let us know in the comments below.

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Seth Jayson had no position in any company mentioned here at the time of publication. You can view his stock holdings here. He is co-advisor of Motley Fool Hidden Gems, which provides new small-cap ideas every month, backed by a real-money portfolio. The Motley Fool owns shares of Coca-Cola and PepsiCo. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, and Hansen Natural, as well as creating a diagonal call position in PepsiCo. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On October 25, 2011, at 1:00 PM, NCMichael wrote:

    Ah ha! Margins are down! Alert! Danger Will Robinson, Danger!

    Or, we're coming out of a recession and people aren't buying quite as much soda as they were before, when they had equity in their homes, jobs, disposable income...

    To group KO with CPB, which makes soups (um, um, good) seems to be ... odd, and PEP although a strong number two in sodas, generates more than 50% of its income from Lay's, Gatorade, Quaker Oats and Tropicana. If you're going to cut back on beverages, you'll buy OJ before you buy any Diet Pepsi. And as far as Lay's goes, you know you can't eat just one.

    So, Mr. Jason has an interesting analysis, but I don't think it justifies selling KO or even to stop buying it on the dips, as I am doing.

    Also see Ken Kurson's article in November's Esquire for a different (and positive) perspective on KO.

    http://www.esquire.com/features/portfolio/coke-price-1011

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Related Tickers

5/25/2012 4:00 PM
KO $75.23 Down -0.33 -0.44%
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CPB $32.58 Up +0.02 +0.06%
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