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Does AgFeed Industries Pass Buffett's Test?

We'd all like to invest like the legendary Warren Buffett, turning thousands into millions or more. Buffett analyzes companies by calculating return on invested capital (ROIC) to help determine whether a company has an economic moat -- the ability to earn returns on its money above that money's cost.

ROIC is perhaps the most important metric in value investing. By determining a company's ROIC, you can see how well it's using the cash you entrust to it and whether it's actually creating value for you. Simply, ROIC divides a company's operating profit by how much investment it took to get that profit. The formula:

ROIC = Net operating profit after taxes / Invested capital

You can get further detail on the nuances of the formula.

This one-size-fits-all calculation cuts out many of the legal accounting tricks, such as excessive debt, that managers use to boost earnings numbers, and it provides you with an apples-to-apples way to evaluate businesses, even across industries. The higher the ROIC, the more efficiently the company uses capital.

Ultimately, we're looking for companies that can invest their money at rates that are higher than the cost of capital, which for most businesses is between 8% and 12%. We prefer to see ROIC above 12% at a minimum, along with a history of increasing returns, or at least steady returns, which indicate some durability to the company's economic moat.

Let's look atAgFeed Industries (Nasdaq: FEED  ) and three of its industry peers, to see how efficiently they use cash. Here are the ROIC figures for each company over a few periods.

Company

TTM

1 Year Ago

3 Years Ago

5 Years Ago

AgFeed Industries (8.7%)* 3.8% 20% 60.2%
Zhongpin (Nasdaq: HOGS  ) 11.7% 11.3% 13.7% 12.6%
Pilgrim's Pride (NYSE: PPC  ) (8.7%)** (0.2%)** (1.3%)** 4.7%
Hormel Foods (NYSE: HRL  ) 16.8% 14.4% 11.6% 12.5%

Source: S&P Capital IQ.
*Because FEED did not report an effective tax rate, we used its 35% effective rate from one year ago.
**Because PPC did not report an effective tax rate, we used its 21% effective rate from five years ago.

Agfeed Industries' returns on invested capital have declined dramatically and consistently over the past five years. Two of the other companies have also seen declines in their returns. Only Hormel Foods' ROIC is higher than it was five years ago.

Businesses with consistently high ROIC show that they're efficiently using capital. They also have the ability to treat shareholders well, because they can then use their extra cash to pay out dividends to us, buy back shares, or further invest in their franchise. And healthy and growing dividends are something that Warren Buffett has long loved.

So for more successful investments, dig a little deeper than the earnings headlines to find the company's ROIC. If you'd like, you can add these companies to your Watchlist.

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Jim Royal, Ph.D., owns no shares of any company mentioned here. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended writing puts in Zhongpin. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

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  • Report this Comment On November 05, 2011, at 6:13 PM, ReadThisN0w wrote:

    AgFEED 2012 projected 700+ million revenue up from 320 mln in 2011.

    FEED (nasdaq)

    Additional cost incurred during the restucturing started in 2010: with projected revenue to start in 2012.

    .."Flagship western-style farm in China was populated in Q1 2011 and will deliver hogs to the market in Q1 2012"

    Revenue projections in the last slide.

    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1331427/0001144204110...

  • Report this Comment On November 05, 2011, at 6:13 PM, ReadThisN0w wrote:

    Agfeed (FEED )- Hog meat business with both USA and China operations.

    Run by US management after Chinese management was removed.

    2012 price target 2$-8$Oct 2011 market cap under 50mln, book value a multiple of that

    2011 forecasted revenue 320 mln

    2012 forecasted revenue > 700mln of which >60% in the united stated

    Overall:

    -Alltime high prices for hog meat in china 2H 2011

    -Chinese pork consumption still rising very fast, biggest pork market in the world allready

    -Very strong sector outlook by big companies in this sector like Smithfield (SFD) , also SFD sees insider buys Q3 2011.

    Company specific:

    -New western style hog plants in china populated in Q1 2011, expected to yield from Q1 2012 onwards

    -USA vertical integrated planned with meat processors Kansas Saucage and Pine ridge, mostly intended for chinese exports.

    -Stock sold off with all the other chinese stock, but is actually cleaning up their books and is now run american.

    Recent events:

    Mid 2010: Chinese company merged with US based M2P2 hog production expertise company

    In the past very rapid growth but no corresponding profitability

    Q4 2010 : old chinese management was fired and restructuring including chinese layoffs started

    Q1 2011 : New american management appointed, including some top ex mcdonalds managers (meat industry background)

    -Q1-Q3 2011 Writeoffs in book value for some 2007 and 2008 acquisitions which were overpayed for by old management

    -Q1-Q3-2011 Writeoffs in accounts receivable for some the 2007-2008 farms and part of the chinese nutritional operations.

    -Q1-Q2 2011 Some 80-85% of those allready written off on book value

    July 2011: Company CEO Stadler presented outlook for 2011 and 2012. Projected 2012 Revenue > 700 million US dollar.

    (as they also filed with the SEC, be sure to see the last slide on revenue projections)

    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1331427/0001144204110...

    Q4 2011: Intended vertical integration in the US: As communicated by the company in summer 2011:

    "The Company also announces that it has entered into separate non-binding letters of intent to acquire Pine Ridge

    Farms, LLC ("PRF") and Kansas City Sausage Company, LLC ("KCS"). It is expected that the combined businesses will

    add over $180 million of annualized revenue and over $13 million of EBITDA to the Company's results.

    " ( http://finance.yahoo.com/news/AgFeed-Industries-Inc-prnews-2...

    Sept 2011 : Company announced Kansas City CEO to join the board of directors of Agfeed.

    Before closing of the transaction there will be a final check and clean up of the chinese accounting books.

    Deadline for the exclusivity letter of intent set at december 1st.

    Final writeoffs that allready have started in past two quarters should occur after this committee concludes its business. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/AgFeed-Industries-Inc-prnews-1...

    Sept 2011: Agfeed reaches agreement with Iowa state to allow it to pursue vertical integrated company.

    http://www.state.ia.us/government/ag/latest_news/releases/se...

    Sept 2011 : 50k Insider at the market buy:

    http://www.insidercow.com/history/company.jsp?company=feed

  • Report this Comment On November 16, 2011, at 2:01 AM, TurbulentTime wrote:

    Could this now be an overlooked investment opportunity? I think people will still eat a lot of pork, especially Chinese, Philippinos, Malaysians, Singaporeans, etc all eat lots and lots of porks, also here in United States too. Hmmm...... I need to really take a closer look in this segment. I am afraid that one day, food and water will be in very high demand and that worldwide population keep on rising with many irresponsive parents not capping on their number of offsprings, hence contributing to over-population problems in this world. I think I will take a closer look at this segment.

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Related Tickers

5/25/2012 4:02 PM
HRL $30.15 Up +0.46 +1.55%
Hormel Foods Corp CAPS Rating: *****
PPC $7.97 Down -0.03 -0.37%
Pilgrim's Pride Co… CAPS Rating: *
FEED.PK $0.24 Down +0.00 +0.00%
AgFeed Industries,… CAPS Rating: ****
HOGS $9.49 Up +0.15 +1.61%
Zhongpin CAPS Rating: ***

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