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Will Alcatel-Lucent Earn or Burn?

Margins matter. The more Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU  ) keeps of each buck it earns in revenue, the more money it has to invest in growth, fund new strategic plans, or (gasp!) distribute to shareholders. Healthy margins often separate pretenders from the best stocks in the market. That's why we check up on margins at least once a quarter in this series. I'm looking for the absolute numbers, comparisons to sector peers and competitors, and any trend that may tell me how strong Alcatel-Lucent's competitive position could be.

Here's the current margin snapshot for Alcatel-Lucent and some of its sector and industry peers and direct competitors.

Company

TTM Gross Margin

TTM Operating Margin

TTM Net Margin

Alcatel-Lucent 36.1% 3.8% 3.5%
ADTRAN (Nasdaq: ADTN  ) 58.3% 27.3% 20.3%
Tellabs (Nasdaq: TLAB  ) 38.5% (5.9%) (14.0%)
Ciena (Nasdaq: CIEN  ) 38.5% (12.3%) (14.9%)

Source: S&P Capital IQ. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Unfortunately, that table doesn't tell us much about where Alcatel-Lucent has been, or where it's going. A company with rising gross and operating margins often fuels its growth by increasing demand for its products. If it sells more units while keeping costs in check, its profitability increases. Conversely, a company with gross margins that inch downward over time is often losing out to competition, and possibly engaging in a race to the bottom on prices. If it can't make up for this problem by cutting costs -- and most companies can't -- then both the business and its shares face a decidedly bleak outlook.

Of course, over the short term, the kind of economic shocks we recently experienced can drastically affect a company's profitability. That's why I like to look at five fiscal years' worth of margins, along with the results for the trailing 12 months, the last fiscal year, and last fiscal quarter. You can't always reach a hard conclusion about your company's health, but you can better understand what to expect, and what to watch.

Here's the margin picture for Alcatel-Lucent over the past few years.

anImage

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Because of seasonality in some businesses, the numbers for the last period on the right -- the TTM figures -- aren't always comparable to the FY results preceding them. To compare quarterly margins to their prior-year levels, consult this chart.

anImage

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FQ = fiscal quarter.

Here's how the stats break down:

  • Over the past five years, gross margin peaked at 34.8% and averaged 33.9%. Operating margin peaked at 7.2% and averaged 1.8%. Net margin peaked at -0.9% and averaged -11.4%.
  • TTM gross margin is 36.1%, 220 basis points better than the five-year average. TTM operating margin is 3.8%, 200 basis points better than the five-year average. TTM net margin is 3.5%, 1,490 basis points better than the five-year average.

With recent TTM operating margins exceeding historical averages, Alcatel-Lucent looks like it is doing fine.

If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're probably ahead of 95% of the market's individual investors. To stay ahead, learn more about how I use analysis like this to help me uncover the best returns in the stock market. Got an opinion on the margins at Alcatel-Lucent? Let us know in the comments below.

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Seth Jayson had no position in any company mentioned here at the time of publication. You can view his stock holdings here. He is co-advisor of Motley Fool Hidden Gems, which provides new small-cap ideas every month, backed by a real-money portfolio. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On November 23, 2011, at 5:25 PM, serge9 wrote:

    I have (accumulated since 2001) about 80.000 (80 thousand +) ALU shares

    Based on what ALU announces and what the CEO’s promise and hoping that what they say is true

    Presently my average cost is about 8.50 and my losses to date are as follow

    My present lose is = 680,000.00 – 118,400.00 = 561,600.00 US

    I had done the same thing with Nortel and believed Nortel CEO’s and end up loosing close to 500,000.00 US

    Mr. Zafirovski and the rest of management and the board of directors new what is going on but they kept promising roses, may be they had a main hidden agenda (to destroy Nortel and bring it to its knees for the benefits of other Telecom enterprises)

    i do not belive this is the case with ALU

    I believed that ALU CEO, CFO and the management team are credible and more qualified than (Nortel management team)

    Is it true that ALU is getting close to Bankruptcy?

    If not why the CEO and the CFO does not come up front and say clearly from where they are going to get the Money needed to run the company

    why they are not reducing head count and cutting costs

    Today, The ALU stock is selling for less that 1.50 US, less expensive than buying French fries at McDonald

    I believed the media, ALU CEO and CFO and trusted them,

    Now I am starting to loose Faith and very disappointed, were the promise of return to profitability a (mensonge) or miss leading investors or miss managment from a mamagment team that are not qualified or do not realy know how to run a bussiness and make profit?

    i believe that ALU managment big and small should work for free till they achieve a constant profit, or at least be paid based on performance, if ALU make a profit = they get paid, if ALU does not make a profit = they do not get paid

    this a simple formula, you achieve postive results = you get paid

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Related Tickers

5/25/2012 4:01 PM
ALU $1.67 Up +0.07 +4.38%
Alcatel-Lucent (AD… CAPS Rating: ***
TLAB $3.54 Down -0.03 -0.84%
Tellabs, Inc. CAPS Rating: ****
CIEN $11.84 Down -0.11 -0.92%
Ciena Corp CAPS Rating: **
ADTN $30.09 Up +0.29 +0.97%
ADTRAN, Inc. CAPS Rating: ****

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