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2 Positive Signs for priceline.com

priceline.com (Nasdaq: PCLN  ) carries $720.9 million of goodwill and other intangibles on its balance sheet. Sometimes goodwill, especially when it's excessive, can foreshadow problems down the road. Could this be the case with Priceline?

Before we answer that, let's look at what could go wrong.

AOL blows up
In early 2002, AOL Time Warner was trading for $66.27 per share.

It had $209 billion of assets on its balance sheet, and $128 billion of that was in the form of goodwill and other intangible assets. Goodwill is simply the difference between the price paid for a company during an acquisition and the net assets of the acquired company. The $128 billion of goodwill in this case was created when AOL and Time Warner merged in 2000.

The problem with inflating your net assets with goodwill is that it can -- being intangible, after all -- go away if the acquisition or merger doesn't create the amount of value that was expected. That's what happened in AOL Time Warner's case. It had to write off most of the goodwill over the next few months, and one year later that line item had shrunk to $37 billion. Investors punished the stock along the way, sending it down to $27.04 -- or nearly a 60% loss.

In his fine book It's Earnings That Count, Hewitt Heiserman explains the AOL situation and how two simple metrics can help minimize your risk of owning a company that may blow up like this. Let's see how Priceline holds up using his two metrics.

Intangible assets ratio
This ratio shows us the percentage of total assets made up by goodwill and other intangibles. Heiserman says he views anything over 20% as worrisome, "because management might be overpaying for the acquisition or acquisitions that gave rise to the goodwill."

Priceline has an intangible assets ratio of 19%.

This is below Heiserman's threshold, and a sign that most growth you see with the company is probably organic. But we're not through; let's also take a look at tangible book value.

Tangible book value
Tangible book value is simply what remains after subtracting goodwill and other intangibles from shareholders' equity (also known as book value). If this is not a positive value, Heiserman advises you to avoid the company because it may "lack the balance sheet muscle to protect [itself] in a recession or from better-financed competitors."

Priceline's tangible book value is $1.7 billion, so no yellow flag here.

Foolish bottom line
To recap, here are Priceline's numbers, as well as a bonus look at a few other companies in its industry:

Company

Intangible Assets Ratio

Tangible Book Value (in millions)

Priceline 19% $1,670
Expedia (Nasdaq: EXPE  ) 58% ($1,535)
Travelzoo (Nasdaq: TZOO  ) 1% $28

Source: S&P Capital IQ.

Priceline appears to be in good shape in terms of the intangible assets ratio and tangible book value. You can never base an entire investment thesis on one or two metrics, but there are no yellow flags here. If any companies you're researching do fail one of these checks, make sure you understand the business model and management's objectives. I'll help you keep a close eye on these ratios over the next few quarters by updating them soon after each earnings report.

The Steve Jobs Betrayal
You may already know that in the final year of his life, Jobs revealed a stunning betrayal — and told his biographer, "I will spend my last dying breath... and every penny of Apple's $40 billion in the bank to right this wrong." What was it that made Jobs so irate — and why could it make a few in-the-know investors some major profits over the coming months and years?

Enter your email address below to find out what made Jobs so enraged!

Fool analyst Rex Moore owns no companies mentioned in this article.

Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of priceline.com and Travelzoo. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

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  • Report this Comment On December 09, 2011, at 5:36 PM, Whaler31 wrote:

    I see some yellow flags:

    From Priceline’s latest 10-Q (quarterly report): "we find for the first three quarters ending September 30th total revenues increased from $2.35 billion in 2010 to $3.36 billion in 2011, for a 43% increase. However operating expenses soared 51% from $832 million dollars to $1.26 billion. The largest component of Priceline’s operating expense is online advertising which increased from $418.3 million to $701 million. This number is one investors need to watch. It was noted in a Financial Times article, back in June of this year, that the cost of ads across the online spectrum have increased 45% over the past year. Facebook ads have increased 74%. Also, with the announcement today by the National Football League that it is about to close major media deals worth $3.2 billion dollars per year, the cost of off line advertising will surely be increasing also, on both cable and the networks.

    It is also interesting to find that Priceline is holding over $1.1 billion dollars in foreign government securities. The company has invested in Germany, the Netherlands, France, and the U.K. This represents considerable risk to its balance sheet, considering the ongoing crisis and pending European recession.

    A third item in the footnotes of Priceline’s balance sheet related to ongoing legal actions should also be noted by potential investors. Priceline, along with other travel companies, is now involved in litigation that may have a material impact on its bottom line going forward. Taxing jurisdictions across the country have sued Priceline claiming it owes hotel occupancy and other taxes. Priceline notes it intends to vigorously fight these lawsuits. The company already forked over $3.4 million dollars to the City of San Francisco"

    Maybe you could look that over again, and see some flags after all. I also notice that certain money managers are getting write-ups on PCLN as-of-late, and of course they are calling PCLN a strong buy.

    I say that it is a highly volatile stock, and beware of the large price swings PCLN makes.

    (great insight in quotes above from seeking alpha's Jack Holland)

    Good Luck!

  • Report this Comment On December 09, 2011, at 5:49 PM, Whaler31 wrote:

    I'm sorry, I neglected to mention that 40% of Priceline's business comes from Europe.(Wall Street Journal 12/09/11)

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020431900457708...

    Yellow flag?

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Related Tickers

5/25/2012 4:00 PM
PCLN $652.88 Down -16.09 -2.41%
Priceline.com CAPS Rating: **
TZOO $23.47 Up +0.52 +2.27%
Travelzoo CAPS Rating: **
EXPE $44.89 Down -0.27 -0.60%
Expedia, Inc. CAPS Rating: **

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