What 2012 Holds for Cheniere Energy

With 2012 just beginning, now's a great time to gauge how the stocks you're interested in are likely to do this year and beyond. By knowing what stock analysts and fellow investors expect from a stock, you'll be smarter about whether you should buy it for your portfolio -- or sell it if you already own it.

Today, let's take a look at Cheniere Energy (AMEX: LNG). With a huge glut of natural gas in the U.S. coming from big shale discoveries, Cheniere is trying to take advantage by turning the commodity into an exportable energy source for the rest of the world. But with competitors also seeking to export liquefied natural gas, will Cheniere be able to dominate the industry? Below, I'll take a closer look at what people expect from Cheniere Energy and its rivals.

Forecasts on Cheniere Energy

Sources: Yahoo! Finance and S&P Capital IQ.

Will Cheniere Energy rise in 2012?
Analysts have some high hopes for Cheniere in the long run, with a target price that's almost 50% higher than the stock's current level. Yet they understand that the long-term projects that Cheniere is working on will take time to pan out, so they're projecting losses to persist for several years. Members of our Motley Fool CAPS community aren't very willing to wait, giving it a low two-star rating.

The future for Cheniere hinges on the expansion of its Sabine Pass liquefied natural gas facility. Currently, Sabine Pass accepts LNG for import, but with natural gas prices near decade lows, the prospects for exporting LNG look much more favorable. The company has gotten a commitment from Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) to supply gas and has signed a number of deals with potential buyers for LNG when the facility is ready, but 2015 is probably the earliest that even optimistic investors should expect gas to start to flow -- even assuming the company and its Cheniere Energy Partners (AMEX: CQP) subsidiary can line up the necessary financing and permits for the project to go forward.

The other challenge will be making sure there's enough LNG demand to support the project going forward. With a rival project from EnCana (NYSE: ECA), EOG Resources, and Apache planning to serve the Asian market via western Canada, it's all too likely that a glut of LNG could result. Already, InterOil (NYSE: IOC) has made a lot of progress on its LNG facility project, which is strategically located in Papua New Guinea -- much closer to key Chinese markets.

The next few years are likely to be difficult for Cheniere shareholders as they wait impatiently for progress reports. Eventually, though, the stock could deliver huge gains if everything goes right for Cheniere.

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