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Here's 1 Reason Microsoft Looks Weak

Margins matter. The more Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT  ) keeps of each buck it earns in revenue, the more money it has to invest in growth, fund new strategic plans, or (gasp!) distribute to shareholders. Healthy margins often separate pretenders from the best stocks in the market. That's why we check up on margins at least once a quarter in this series. I'm looking for the absolute numbers, so I can compare them to current and potential competitors, and any trend that may tell me how strong Microsoft's competitive position could be.

Here's the current margin snapshot for Microsoft over the trailing 12 months: Gross margin is 76.4%, while operating margin is 38.0% and net margin is 32.6%.

Unfortunately, a look at the most recent numbers doesn't tell us much about where Microsoft has been, or where it's going. A company with rising gross and operating margins often fuels its growth by increasing demand for its products. If it sells more units while keeping costs in check, its profitability increases. Conversely, a company with gross margins that inch downward over time is often losing out to competition, and possibly engaging in a race to the bottom on prices. If it can't make up for this problem by cutting costs -- and most companies can't -- then both the business and its shares face a decidedly bleak outlook.

Of course, over the short term, the kind of economic shocks we recently experienced can drastically affect a company's profitability. That's why I like to look at five fiscal years' worth of margins, along with the results for the trailing 12 months, the last fiscal year, and last fiscal quarter (LFQ). You can't always reach a hard conclusion about your company's health, but you can better understand what to expect, and what to watch.

Here's the margin picture for Microsoft over the past few years.

anImage

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Because of seasonality in some businesses, the numbers for the last period on the right -- the TTM figures -- aren't always comparable to the FY results preceding them. To compare quarterly margins to their prior-year levels, consult this chart.

anImage

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FQ = fiscal quarter.

Here's how the stats break down:

  • Over the past five years, gross margin peaked at 80.8% and averaged 79.4%. Operating margin peaked at 39.8% and averaged 38.3%. Net margin peaked at 33.1% and averaged 29.0%.
  • TTM gross margin is 76.4%, 300 basis points worse than the five-year average. TTM operating margin is 38.0%, 30 basis points worse than the five-year average. TTM net margin is 32.6%, 360 basis points better than the five-year average.

With recent TTM operating margins below historical averages, Microsoft has some work to do.

If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're probably ahead of 95% of the market's individual investors. To stay ahead, learn more about how I use analysis like this to help me uncover the best returns in the stock market. Got an opinion on the margins at Microsoft? Let us know in the comments below.

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Seth Jayson had no position in any company mentioned here at the time of publication. You can view his stock holdings here. He is co-advisor of Motley Fool Hidden Gems, which provides new small-cap ideas every month, backed by a real-money portfolio. The Motley Fool owns shares of Microsoft. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of and creating a bull call spread position in Microsoft. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On January 23, 2012, at 9:52 AM, nemloc wrote:

    1 reason why I'm not a fan of Motley Fool articles is articles like this. Yes, there is some data in the article. No, there's no conclusion reached or hypothesis being tested. Seems like it was written purely to draw folks for ad impressions and the potential click through. :(

  • Report this Comment On January 23, 2012, at 10:35 AM, tweenthelines wrote:

    Where's the cash flow margin analysis? I basically agree with Nemioc in the previous post; MF staff LOVE to do these articles in the abstract and never go far enough. What Microsoft, or any other company must do in the future (CAPEX, Debt financing etc.) may be drastically different from what happened in the past.

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5/25/2012 4:00 PM
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