Robert Shiller on Gold, Stocks, and Investing in the Rearview Mirror

The SPDR Gold (NYSE: GLD  ) ETF is up more than 240% since 2004. The S&P 500 stock index is about flat over that period.

Gold has unquestionably been one of the best, if not the best, assets to own in recent years. While high-quality blue chip stocks that more than doubled earnings have stagnated -- Wal-Mart and Microsoft fit that bill -- precious metals stocks like Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW  ) and Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY  ) have been staggering successes.

But when it comes to the question of what comes next, there is room for debate. It is a classic investing miscalculation to assume that what has done well in the past will do well in the future. History proves it's usually the other way around.

A recent Gallup poll asked investors what they think will be the best long-term investment. Thirty-four percent said gold; 17% said stocks. I asked Yale economist Robert Shiller what he thought about that statistic in an exclusive interview last month. Here's what he had to say:

Fool contributor Morgan Housel owns shares of Wal-Mart and Microsoft. Follow him on Twitter @TMFHousel. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (2) | Recommend This Article (12)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

Add your comment.

DocumentId: 1763029, ~/Articles/ArticleHandler.aspx, 7/31/2014 2:14:12 AM

Report This Comment

Use this area to report a comment that you believe is in violation of the community guidelines. Our team will review the entry and take any appropriate action.

Sending report...


Advertisement