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Where Tomorrow's Jobs Will Be

In 1900, 44% of all jobs were in agriculture. By 2000, 2.4% were.

The job market changes fast. Today's jobs won't be tomorrow's.

So where might tomorrow's jobs be?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics just released estimates of where new jobs will be created over the next decade. Have a look:

anImage

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In total, nonagricultural jobs should expand to 150 million from 130 million between 2010 and 2020, BLS reckons.

A few interesting notes:

  • Construction-related jobs make up one-quarter of the fastest-growing occupations over the next decade, but total employment in most construction occupations likely won't reach pre-2007 levels by 2020. Even though these industries are growing briskly, they're coming off such a savage decline that employment levels aren't likely to hit new highs for a long time.
  • As BLS notes: "Over the 2010-20 decade, 54.8 million total job openings are expected. While growth will lead to many openings, more than half -- 61.6 percent -- will come from the need to replace workers who retire or otherwise permanently leave an occupation."
  • 18 of the 30 jobs with the highest projected job openings require less than a college degree.

Of course, these are mere projections susceptible to being wrong -- so, grain, salt, all that stuff. Some of the smarter economic analysts I follow make strong arguments for the idea that most new jobs in the coming decades will be in industries we can't yet fathom -- they haven't been invented yet -- so trying to forecast the job market is a lost cause.

What do you think? Does this chart mesh with your vision of the coming decade? Sound off in the comments section below.

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Fool contributor Morgan Housel doesn't own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this article. Follow him on Twitter @TMFHousel. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On February 03, 2012, at 5:35 PM, rikster720 wrote:

    60% (18 of 30) new jobs will not require a college degree yet the kings and queens of the higher education establishment, backed by the grand boobahs of government insist everyone needs to go to college to assure themselves a place in productive society.

    Yes, go to college and get a liberal arts education and when the pipe bursts in your house call another liberal arts major to come over and fix it for you.

    The grandmasters of higher education have done a tremendous disservice to people who have innate skills in how to fix and make things by denigrating community colleges and apprentice programs that would provide the finishing touches for worthwhile careers in the trades and other fields where common sense and aptitude for a specific function are soon going to be in demand.

  • Report this Comment On February 03, 2012, at 5:38 PM, TMFHousel wrote:

    <<60% (18 of 30) new jobs will not require a college degree yet the kings and queens of the higher education establishment, backed by the grand boobahs of government insist everyone needs to go to college to assure themselves a place in productive society.>>

    Keep in mind: There may be a lot of jobs that don't require college degrees, but a lot of them pay wages that many would find unlivable.

  • Report this Comment On February 03, 2012, at 6:58 PM, mark516119966 wrote:

    rikster,

    I just read an article about a school trying to abolish their vocation type classes for arts. If this guy is to be believed and I do, He owns a cabinet shop so he and other concerned people of the trades visited the school board to show their displeasure in as much as of what you wrote.

    I don't remember what district it was in but there is little hope, in my opinion, of success mainly because we are all being lead down a feminine road in this country.

  • Report this Comment On February 03, 2012, at 7:05 PM, mark516119966 wrote:

    manufacturing -73!

    So the EPA, Federal regulation, taxes, and pretty much a hatred for any thing produced, prevailes in our future.

    Doesn't sound like much of a future.

    It would be interesting to find a similar prediction for the future in 1900.

  • Report this Comment On February 03, 2012, at 7:21 PM, MichaelDSimms wrote:

    I think your crystal ball is broken.

    When has the Federal government ever constricted? It all depends on elections.

  • Report this Comment On February 04, 2012, at 4:03 PM, jsmiley007 wrote:

    <Keep in mind: There may be a lot of jobs that don't require college degrees, but a lot of them pay wages that many would find unlivable. >

    Only if higher education and CEOs persuade the country to gut organized labor.

  • Report this Comment On February 04, 2012, at 4:21 PM, TMFHousel wrote:

    <<When has the Federal government ever constricted>>

    Federal employees, 1985: 3.1 million

    Federal employees, 2011: 2.8 million

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/CEU9091000001.txt

  • Report this Comment On February 04, 2012, at 4:23 PM, TMFHousel wrote:

    Looking at the data, a better question might be: When in the last 40 years has the federal government's employees ever expanded?

  • Report this Comment On February 04, 2012, at 9:50 PM, kmarkt2 wrote:

    This prognosis, is a complete opposite of what is needed to right the disaster brought about from too many being in the Professional & Business category. The US will therefore remain a consumption intensive GDP on credit, with little to show for real wealth creation and redistribution. A deep service oriented economy of selling haircuts, insurance, healthcare, legal services to each other and the rest of daily needs, imported.

  • Report this Comment On February 05, 2012, at 12:28 AM, kyleleeh wrote:

    @kmakt2

    A decrease in manufacturing jobs does not equal a decrease in manufacturing output...automation allows very few people to produce a lot of goods.

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