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Buy, Sell, or Hold: Taseko

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When considering any stock for your portfolio, don't be swayed by just the positives. Examine its pros and cons, and decide whether its possible upside outweighs its risks. Let's take a look at the copper-mining company Taseko (AMEX: TGB  ) today, and see why you might want to buy, sell, or hold it.

Buy
The first reason you might want to buy Taseko is its industry. Copper is here to stay and as the global economy gets back on its feet, commercial and residential construction and upgrades will push up demand for it. This is especially true in developing markets, as developing means building. Nations such as China and India will need copper, and lots of it. China, which is responsible for about 40% of the world's copper demand, has already been loading up on the metal recently. Last year, mining equipment maker Joy Global (NYSE: JOY  ) waxed bullish on copper, noting that it was the metal with "the strongest fundamentals."

The copper company isn't sitting still, either. It has Canada's approval to build a $1 billion gold and copper mine in British Columbia, in the world's seventh-largest undeveloped gold-copper deposit. Pair that with rising copper prices, and it gets even more promising. The price of copper recently hit a three-month high, which has given stocks such as Taseko and Southern Copper (Nasdaq: SCCO  ) a boost.

Taseko sports lots of lovely numbers, too. Over the past three years, the company has posted average annual revenue growth rates in the double digits, and earnings growth rates in the triple (or more) digits. Net profit margins are roughly 20%, and current and forward price-to-earnings ratios are around 13 or 14. The company's reserves have been growing strongly over the past year or so, as well.

Another boon is a discovery of high-grade niobium in Taseko's Aley property. It's a rare and valuable mineral, much of which is used in steel-making.

Finally, there's speculation from some that Taseko might get bought out by a bigger company, which often serves to give a stock a big price boost. Don't act just on rumors or speculation, though.

Sell
So why would you sell a stock like this? Well, copper prices don't always rise. Last fall, prices were at 14-month lows, and copper-related stocks had slumped, in response. That can happen again.

Other factors that can hurt the company, and thus the stock, include bad weather, unfavorable currency exchange rates, rising fuel costs, and poor results from mining activities.

Hold
Clearly, the company has a lot going for it. But it also faces some risks, as most companies do. If you'd rather invest in companies with fewer risks, you can -- and should -- as they're out there.

The verdict
As for me, I'm not rushing into Taseko just yet, but it is tempting. It seems worth keeping an eye on and considering for a berth in our portfolios.

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Longtime Fool contributor Selena Maranjian holds no position in any company mentioned. You can follow Selena on Twitter @SelenaMaranjian. Click here to see her holdings and a short bio. The Motley Fool owns shares of Joy Global. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (2) | Recommend This Article (12)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On February 21, 2012, at 10:31 AM, pascador wrote:

    Taseko has NOT yet received the Federal government of Canada's approval to build the prosperity gold and copper mine in British Columbia. Taseko has been turned down once and resubmitted a revised project plan in November 2011. The following is found on slide 14 of the company's January 2012 presentation posted on Taseko's website:

    • British Columbia Government approved project in January 2010

    • Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency (CEAA) announced a Panel Review to

    commence in November 2011

    • The Minister of Environment has instructed CEAA to:

    • Design a process which assess the environmental effects identified in the original

    project description

    • Ensure information obtained during the original environmental assessment is used

    • Adhere to a timeline of no more than 12 months

    → Expect Environmental Assessment Review to be completed by November 2012

  • Report this Comment On February 21, 2012, at 8:19 PM, techpatriot wrote:

    Second the above poster. If TGB DID have approval, you would be buying a ten dollar bill, if not a 10 and a 5, for 4 only bucks right now. With copper prices where they are, and headed higher, TGB is a 4-6 dollar stock, depending on how well it executes it's mining business. It has not done so without hiccups so far, hence it has been hanging around the 3-4 dollar range.

    However, IF they do get approval for the Prosperity mine, and IF the indigent local welfare tribes are paid off sufficiently so as to not cause operational problems for the project, then you are likely sitting on a 3-5 bagger.

    That, as anyone who has followed this stock, or understands even a little about Canadian politics is however, a huge IF.

    This is a good, albeit speculative play. I would not risk more than 5% of your portfolio, and I would not risk money you cannot afford to lose 30% on short term. If that's the case, buy JNJ or KO or BRK, not this stock.

    If you can risk some money on speculation, there are a lot worse plays out there than this. I do believe eventually that property will be developed, if not by TGB, then by someone else. The Alley property is also speculative right now. It is a long way from even getting permits and approvals. TGB could possibly monetize both of those properties by selling them to a true player, like TCK, but that day is a long way off. And mining properties are not as easy to monetize as oil fields are, so bear that in mind.

    Also keep in mind the stock has had a fair run of 35% or better from admittedly absurdly low prices. Without new copper price surges or new positive news you may have a pullback in the not to distant future.

    Still, I hold some myself, and I keep hoping that this dog WILL have it's day sometime in the not too distant future. Obviously, if the news from Ottawa is positive about the Prosperity property, it will already too late to get on board TGB by that time.

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Related Tickers

5/20/2013 4:00 PM
TGB $2.19 Up +0.09 +4.29%
Taseko Mines Limit… CAPS Rating: ****
JOY $58.81 Up +2.07 +3.65%
Joy Global, Inc. CAPS Rating: ****

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