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This Stock Isn't Inflated by the Dividend Bubble

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Yesterday, Fool analyst Morgan Housel presciently asked readers to consider whether or not we're in the midst of a dividend bubble, akin to the technology sector at the turn of the century or the more recent housing boom and bust from which the economy is still recovering.

The evidence he provided was convincing. He pointed to Consolidated Edison (NYSE: ED  ) , a dividend-paying utility company, that's seen its shares return 50% in the last two years and is now sporting a historically low dividend yield. And to Altria (NYSE: MO  ) , the dividend-paying maker of cigarettes, that's trading at its highest valuation since 1998 despite a string of dismal earnings reports as smoking rates decline.

He then discussed how McDonald's (NYSE: MCD  ) , a favorite of income investors, now trades for 19 times earnings after doubling in price in the past two and a half years. And finally Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT  ) , the dividend-paying manufacturer of heavy machinery, which has seen its dividend approach its lowest yield in a decade after the company's share price similarly doubled in the last few years.

What's an income investor to do?
I agree that many dividend stocks look expensive right now. Notice how as their share prices have gone up, many of them have seen their dividend yields plummet over the last few years, even as they've increased their dividend payouts. That's left income-seeking investors with fewer and fewer secure avenues for yield.

My recommendation is to take a good look at technology giant Intel (NYSE: INTC  ) -- I'm so confident, in fact, that I'm ready to make a CAPScall on the company. First, it pays a healthy 3.1% dividend yield, and unlike Consolidated Edison and Caterpillar, its yield has been steadily increasing over the last decade. Second, it's trading for an extremely reasonable 11 times earnings. And finally, as my colleague Alex Planes argued convincingly, its future in both the cloud and mobile computing spaces is bright, to put it mildly. All of these factors, in turn, lead me to believe that Intel has been spared of the pernicious effects of a potential dividend bubble.

Beyond this, I recommend that you read a free report our analysts drafted revealing 11 dividend stocks that offer you both piece of mind and a healthy yield. To learn the identity of these companies before they too are caught up in the dividend bubble, click here now -- it's free.

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Foolish contributing writer John Maxfield does not own shares in any of the companies mentioned above. The Motley Fool owns shares of Altria Group and Intel. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of McDonald's and Intel. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

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  • Report this Comment On February 07, 2012, at 2:21 PM, dmawhinney wrote:

    First of all, I don't quarrel with your stock selection. But I take considerable issue with the concept that a dividend stock can have a bubble (admittedly Housel's, not yours). If an escalating price takes a 4% dividend down to 1.5%, that stock is no longer a dividend stock - at least to current buyers looking for dividends.

    Two observations. ED is still paying a full percentage point more than INTC. It's "historically low" current dividend (4.1%) isn't very far from its 5 year average of 4.9% in spite of the price appreciation you mention.

    I own some of the other stocks as well and consider my dividend payment against my cost basis like bond interest relates to a bond's face value. Yes... I buy dividend stocks instead of bonds for the increasing payments (versus static interest) and security values (versus fixed face value) Remember, the fixed values are eroding from day one by inflation.

    For those of you who would try to remind me that stocks and dividend can go down as well as up, I will remind you that in addition to locking in an eroding purchasing power with bonds, you also might have had a 2025 GM bond paying 7.25%... oops NOT.

    Consider the following in my portfolio:

    CAT at an average cost of $35

    INTC at $0.92 cost basis

    BXP at $45.76

    EPD at $21.66

    CVX at $14.03

    ED at $41.37

    JNJ at $6.32

    WMB at $0.93

    OXM at $5.75

    Figure what my yield is today on the above; and the stocks' values versus cost basis equivalent of a similar bond investment.

    Yes. I've had some of these stocks a long time. Some came to me from my father's estate (JNJ, INTC, OXM)

    OXM is interesting because the dividend was cut in half in 2008 and the stock fell to my 1987 cost basis at that point as well. WMB was purchased at the nadir of the Enron scandal.

    Dividend stocks are where you find them at the time of purchase. Not on some list that was made up a few years ago.

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Related Tickers

5/25/2012 4:00 PM
MCD $91.05 Down -0.48 -0.52%
McDonald's Corp CAPS Rating: *****
MO $32.11 Down -0.15 -0.46%
Altria Group, Inc. CAPS Rating: *****
CAT $89.94 Down -1.48 -1.62%
Caterpillar, Inc. CAPS Rating: ****
ED $59.61 Up +0.02 +0.03%
Consolidated Ediso… CAPS Rating: ****

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