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This Telecom's Fourth-Quarter Reckoning is Coming

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"The number-one reason customers leave Sprint … is 'No iPhone,' and we believe the number-one reason new customers don't try Sprint has been 'No iPhone.'" -- Dan Hesse, CEO of Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S  ) , from a transcript of Sprint's third-quarter earnings conference call.

At the time of that statement in late October, Sprint had been offering the iPhone for only a short time, but as Hesse added in that same call, "We believe two weeks in the market is not enough time to constantly estimate expected gross-add percentages … but early indications are extremely encouraging."

Below is a chart showing Sprint's 2011 stock price along with the percentage of its revenue growth. Note the precipitous drop in the blue revenue-growth line until it reaches the end of the third quarter. If, as CEO Hesse says, the iPhone will promote a turnaround in Sprint's customer and revenue growth, that blue line should follow a significant upward trajectory when the company's fourth quarter earnings are released.

Sprint Nextel Corporation Stock Chart by YCharts.

The iPhone paradox
Estimates are that Sprint activated almost two million iPhones in the fourth quarter. That should be compared to the 7.6 million iPhones that AT&T (NYSE: T  ) activated and the 4.2 million that Verizon (NYSE: VZ  ) activated during that same period. The paradox here is that the greater revenue generated by iPhone sales is more than offset by the subsidies each carrier must pay on each phone to encourage subscribers to sign long-term contracts. So selling more iPhones may not be the road to immediate riches.

When Sprint signed its iPhone deal, it did not immediately release that deal's cost because it knew that the four-year, $15 billion agreement it made with Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) would bring concern to analysts and investors.

The 4G predicament
Sprint's supplier of 4G services has been -- and still is -- Clearwire (Nasdaq: CLWR  ) . Unfortunately for both companies, the flavor of 4G supplied by Clearwire is of the older and slower WiMAX type. Both of Sprint's much-larger rivals, Verizon and AT&T, offer the faster LTE 4G wireless broadband service. As smartphones proliferate, especially LTE-capable smartphones, the more urgent will be Sprint's need to get on the LTE train.

Earlier in the year, the carrier had been pinning most of its LTE hopes on LightSquared to provide a 4G LTE network. Unfortunately, LightSquared has become embroiled in one controversy after another, from its network interfering with GPS devices, to an accusation of bribery from Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa). As LightSquared becomes a less-likely LTE candidate, Clearwire -- which has managed to raise the money it said it needed to build an LTE network -- becomes much more attractive.

Looking forward
So the main things to look for in Sprint's upcoming fourth-quarter earnings report boil down to what effect the iPhone has had on revenues and profit margins; and the company's 2012 LTE rollout projections. Stay tuned for the Fool's coverage of Sprint's earnings statement as soon as it comes out.

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Fool contributor Dan Radovsky owns shares of AT&T. The Motley Fool owns shares of Apple. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Apple. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended creating a bull call spread position in Apple. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On February 07, 2012, at 10:40 PM, Raymondpoppy wrote:

    The fact remains that Sprint is the only U.S. carrier to offer new and existing customers the iPhone experience with unlimited data plans starting at $79.99 per month. An investment writer recently summed it up best: “Sprint now offers the best value proposition for a new smartphone user. I got my first smartphone on Sprint this fall because a new AT&T or Verizon data plan, without being grandfathered in with an earlier, lower price, is outrageous. My plan includes 450 afternoon mobile-to-landline minutes, unlimited other minutes, and unlimited texting and data for $79.99. Unlimited AT&T or Verizon plans would have approached $150, and to get a comparably-priced package, I'd have to settle on limited data or texting plans, which I'd have to constantly try to not blow through. Why get a smartphone if you can't have fun using it?”

    Sprint and Clearwire are headed toward LTE with or without Lightsquared. From a recent news release: "Clearwire and Sprint will work collaboratively to support the ecosystem for TDD-LTE in Band Class 41 for devices, chipsets and standards. Subject to the timing of the build-out and other factors, Sprint expects to launch devices including laptop cards and phones that will utilize Clearwire's TDD-LTE network in 2013."

  • Report this Comment On February 07, 2012, at 10:40 PM, Raymondpoppy wrote:

    Maybe consumers will begin to finally notice that AT&T and Verizon = The Most Expensive Wireless Plans in America. We know where Verizon and AT&T (both in the top 5 for corporate lobbying) get all that money to run commercials 24x7, pay out huge “fat cat” executive bonuses and hire armies of lawyers and lobbyists to try to push the U.S. market into a wireless industry duopoly -- the American consumer. This is how AT&T and Verizon fashion themselves as brilliant … with their political use of money.

    According to the report “Corporate Taxpayers & Corporate Tax Dodgers 2008-10,” two of the 25 companies with the largest total tax subsidies were AT&T at #2 ($14.5 billion) and Verizon at #3 ($12.3 billion). Also, there were 30 corporations that paid less than nothing in aggregate federal income taxes over the same period. These 30 companies, whose pretax U.S. profits totaled $160 billion over the three years, included Verizon. The report states the laws that allow this were not enacted in a vacuum, but rather were adopted in response to relentless corporate lobbying, threats and campaign support.

  • Report this Comment On February 07, 2012, at 10:41 PM, Raymondpoppy wrote:

    AT&T remains the worst carrier in the United States, according to an annual customer satisfaction survey compiled by Consumer Reports. The mobile provider ranked dead last for the third year in a row.

  • Report this Comment On February 07, 2012, at 11:40 PM, 1caflash wrote:

    Dan, Thanks for the article. I have no AAPL stock or Options; just some ideas. Imagine You are Mr. Cook. You want Apple's Business to GROW. You realize someday, it might not do so as analysts predict, and the stock might go done some. You wonder how to prepare for that possibility and You Have NO DEBT and about 100 Billion Dollars Cash. Should You: A--Offer a Dividend; B--Split the Shares; C--Both A & B; D--Neither A nor B; E--Keep Making GREAT PRODUCTS CONSUMERS LIKE; F--BUY SMALL COMPANIES; G--Forget this; The old guy posting these comments is NUTS!!! Remember, we are pretending that You and I are Timothy D. Cook. How Crazy Are WE, KNOWING that Apple, Google, Amazon, Mattel, Hasbro, Dreamworks, Intel, General Electric, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Merck, Eli Manning (Pardon Me) Lilly, and other Great Companies and Performers WELCOME IMAGINATION, INNOVATION and TEAMWORK? YOU KNOW the Choices I Picked. Please RESPOND with YOUR IDEAS. Respectfully submitted by a 62 yrs. young fellow. LMT is in my DRIP.

  • Report this Comment On February 08, 2012, at 1:07 AM, tommydallas wrote:

    You are wrong about Sprint using Lightsquared for their 4G Network. Sprint is actually rolling out it's own LTE network with its own spectrum beginning this quarter in several major markets and will be completed at the end of 2013 with all towers upgraded to LTE. This is part of the "Network Vision" project and is a main reason the stock is down, because of concern over the cost of this project and the iPhone costs. But as you have noted, Sprint must keep up with 4G and the competition, so moving forward without a plan for LTE would be worse than spending and making it happen.

    The good thing about Network Vision is that not only will it allow Sprint to provide LTE, but it also includes several other upgrades including Advanced Tower redesign for enhanced coverage, 1XRTT Advanced, and Push to Talk on CDMA as good as what Nextel had on iDEN.

  • Report this Comment On February 08, 2012, at 7:12 AM, Ares07 wrote:

    Sprint beats analyst estimates shares up 4.5%: Q4 adj-loss of 35c/share, vs. cons. 37c loss, sales $8.72B, vs. cons $8.69B:

    http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20120208005706/en

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Related Tickers

5/25/2012 4:04 PM
S $2.62 Up +0.09 +3.56%
Sprint Nextel Corp CAPS Rating: **
T $33.69 Up +0.05 +0.15%
AT&T CAPS Rating: ***
VZ $41.45 Up +0.06 +0.14%
Verizon Communicat… CAPS Rating: ****
AAPL $562.29 Down -3.03 -0.54%
Apple CAPS Rating: ***
CLWR $1.21 Down -0.01 -0.82%
Clearwire Corp CAPS Rating: **

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