In the quest to find great investments, most investors focus on earnings to gauge a company's financial strength. This is a good start, but earnings can be misleading and incomplete. To get a clearer understanding of a company's ability to earn money and reward you, the shareholder, it's often better to focus on cash flow. In this series, we tear apart a company's cash flow statement to see how much money is truly being earned, and more importantly, what management is doing with that cash.
Step on up, Valero
The first step in analyzing cash flow is to look at net income. Valero's net income over the last five years has been all over the place:
|
2011* |
2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normalized Net Income | $2.2 billion | $0.9 billion | -- | $2.5 billion | $4.0 billion |
Source: S&P Capital IQ. *12 months ended Sept. 30. Valero lost $33.8 million in 2009.
Next, we add back in a few non-cash expenses like the depreciation of assets, and adjust net income for changes in inventory, accounts receivable, and accounts payable -- changes in cash levels that reflect a company either paying its bills, or being paid by customers. This yields a figure called cash from operating activities -- the amount of cash a company generates from doing everyday business.
From there, we subtract capital expenditures, or the amount a company spends acquiring or fixing physical assets. This yields one version of a figure called free cash flow, or the true amount of cash a company has left over for its investors after doing business:
|
2011* |
2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow | $2.7 billion | $1.3 billion | ($0.5 billion) | $0.2 billion | $3.0 billion |
Source: S&P Capital IQ. *12 months ended Sept. 30.
Now we know how much cash Valero is really pulling in each year. Next question: What is it doing with that cash?
There are two ways a company can use free cash flow to directly reward shareholders: dividends and share repurchases. Cash not returned to shareholders can be stashed in the bank, used to invest in other companies, or to pay off debt.
Here's how much Valero has returned to shareholders in recent years:
|
2011* |
2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividends | $114 million | $114 million | $324 million | $299 million | $271 million |
| Share Repurchases | $281 million | -- | -- | $1 billion | $5.8 billion |
| Total Returned to Shareholders | $0.4 billion | $0.1 billion | $0.3 billion | $1.3 billion | $6.1 billion |
Source: S&P Capital IQ. *12 months ended Sept. 30.
As you can see, the company has repurchased a decent amount of its own stock. But combined with other rounds of share issuance, shares outstanding have remained flat:
|
2011* |
2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding (millions) | 565 | 563 | 541 | 524 | 565 |
Source: S&P Capital IQ. *12 months ended Sept. 30.
Now, companies tend to be fairly poor at repurchasing their own shares, buying feverishly when shares are expensive and backing away when they're cheap. Does Valero fall into this trap? Let's take a look:
Source: S&P Capital IQ.
Sure enough, Valero bought back a lot of stock in 2007 when shares were high, and none in 2009 when they plunged. Whether this was a prudent way to save cash as it looked like the economy was about to implode, or a classic example of buying high and panicking low, is up for debate. In general, it doesn't appear management has been the most astute buyer of its own stock.
Finally, I like to look at how dividends have added to total shareholder returns:
Source: S&P Capital IQ.
Shares returned -52% over the last five years, which drops to -57% without dividends -- a minor boost to top off otherwise awful performance. Valero's dividends aren't enough to make a big difference to returns.
To gauge how well a company is doing, keep an eye on the cash. How much a company earns is not as important as how much cash is actually coming in the door, and how much cash is coming in the door isn't as important as what management actually does with that cash. Remember, you, the shareholder, own the company. Are you happy with the way management has used Valero's cash? Sound off in the comment section below.
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