Numbers can lie -- yet they're the best first step in determining whether a stock is a buy. In this series, we use some carefully chosen metrics to size up a stock's true value based on the following clues:
- The current price multiples.
- The consistency of past earnings and cash flow.
- How much growth we can expect.
Let's see what those numbers can tell us about how expensive or cheap Starbucks
The current price multiples
First, we'll look at most investors' favorite metric: the P/E ratio. It divides the company's share price by its earnings per share (EPS) -- the lower, the better.
Then we'll take things up a notch with a more advanced metric: enterprise value to unlevered free cash flow, which divides the company's enterprise value (basically, its market cap plus its debt, minus its cash) by its unlevered free cash flow (its free cash flow, adding back the interest payments on its debt). As with the P/E, the lower this number is, the better.
Analysts argue about which is more important -- earnings or cash flow. Who cares? A good buy ideally has low multiples on both.
Starbucks has a P/E ratio of 36.3 and an EV/FCF ratio of 51.4 over the trailing 12 months. If we stretch and compare current valuations with the five-year averages for earnings and free cash flow, we see that Starbucks has a P/E ratio of 62.0 and a five-year EV/FCF ratio of 58.2.
A positive one-year ratio of less than 10 for both metrics is ideal (at least in my opinion). For a five-year metric, less than 20 is ideal.
Starbucks is 0-for-4 on hitting the ideal targets, but let's see how it stacks up against some of its competitors and industry mates.
Company |
1-Year P/E |
1-Year EV/FCF |
5-Year P/E |
5-Year EV/FCF |
---|---|---|---|---|
Starbucks |
36.3 |
51.4 |
62.0 |
58.2 |
Caribou Coffee |
10.1 |
16.0 |
645.3 |
54.3 |
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters |
22.4 |
NM |
71.7 |
NM |
McDonald's |
17.9 |
23.0 |
22.7 |
26.4 |
Source: S&P Capital IQ; NM = not meaningful because of losses.
Numerically, we've seen how Starbucks' valuation rates on both an absolute and relative basis. Next, let's examine ...
The consistency of past earnings and cash flow
An ideal company will be consistently strong in its earnings and cash-flow generation.
In the past five years, Starbucks' net income margin has ranged from 1.7% to 10.5%. In that same time frame, unlevered free cash flow margin has ranged from 2.8% to 11.3%.
How do those figures compare with those of the company's peers? See for yourself:
Source: S&P Capital IQ; margin ranges are combined.
In addition, over the past five years, Starbucks has tallied up five years of positive earnings and five years of positive free cash flow.
Next, let's figure out ...
How much growth we can expect
Analysts tend to comically overstate their five-year growth estimates. If you accept them at face value, you will overpay for stocks. But even though you should definitely take the analysts' prognostications with a grain of salt, they can still provide a useful starting point when compared with similar numbers from a company's closest rivals.
Let's start by seeing what this company's done over the past five years. In that time period, Starbucks has put up past EPS growth rates of 16.8%. Meanwhile, Wall Street's analysts expect future growth rates of 18.9%.
Here's how Starbucks compares with its peers for trailing-five-year growth (because of losses, Caribou's trailing growth rate isn't meaningful):
Source: S&P Capital IQ; EPS growth shown.
And here's how it measures up with regard to the growth analysts expect over the next five years:
Source: S&P Capital IQ; estimates for EPS growth.
The bottom line
The pile of numbers we've plowed through has shown us the price multiples that shares of Starbucks are trading at, the volatility of its operational performance, and what kind of growth profile it has -- both on an absolute and a relative basis.
The more consistent a company's performance has been and the more growth we can expect, the more we should be willing to pay. We've gone well beyond looking at a 36.3 P/E ratio, and we see a profitable growth stock that's trading for premium multiples. Starbucks' stock has recovered from less than $10 a share in parts of 2009 to all-time highs of more than $60 a share today.
I love Starbucks the company. But potential investors should definitely consider the price being paid today. Compare the multiples to quality company McDonald's, which itself commands premium prices. Yet it's much cheaper while beating Starbucks on margins and recent growth.
As another data point, our Motley Fool CAPS community rates Starbucks three stars (out of five) and McDonald's four stars. But all this is just a start. If you find Starbucks' numbers or story compelling, don't stop here. Continue your due-diligence process until you're confident one way or the other. As a start, add it to My Watchlist to find all of our Foolish analysis.
In our brand-new free report, "The Stocks Only the Smartest Investors Are Buying," I wrote about a stock that's flying under the radar. I invite you to take a free copy to find out the name of the company I believe Warren Buffett would be interested in if he could still invest in small companies.