April 25, 2012
The following video is part of our "Motley Fool Conversations" series in which we talk about topics across the investing world. This time, Tim Beyers of Motley Fool Rule Breakers and Motley Fool Supernova makes a CAPScall that says Seagate Technology will beat the market over the next three years.
Revenue rose 65% in the most recent quarter to $4.45 billion, topping estimates. Adjusted profits zoomed past the average analyst forecast by $0.55 a share, kicking off a rally in the stock price that's ongoing as of this writing.
Indeed, Seagate shares are up more than 80% year-to-date, well above the returns of both the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average and hard drive peer Western Digital, whose stock is up a very healthy 32% so far during 2012.
Can Seagate keep winning? That's a more difficult question to answer, complicated by competitive concerns. Solid-state flash drives are gaining popularity for their speed and stability. The problem? They don't offer as much storage capacity. A Seagate breakthrough called heat-assisted magnetic recording, or HAMR for short, all but guarantees the equation won't tilt soon.
And yet data storage innovation isn't the key to Seagate's success as an investment in the same way that it is for this little-known tech winner. Another metric -- one found with a calculator and some fifth-grade math -- tells the story. Click the video below to hear more.