Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Jive Software (Nasdaq: JIVE ) juked the market this morning, falling by over 17% after updating its guidance to levels below the Street's expectations. The enterprise social networker came in just barely ahead of second-quarter estimates with $27 million in revenue, versus analysts' consensus of $26.8 million. Net losses of $0.11 per share were as expected.
However, Jive now anticipates a $0.10 to $0.12 loss on between $28 million and $29 million in revenue for the upcoming third quarter. Wall Street had expected $29.6 million in revenue and a $0.10 loss.
So what: Full-year guidance also failed to impress, as the range of $110 million to $113.5 million on the top line and $0.38 to $0.42 in losses per share were on the lower end of Wall Street's consensus. Analysts had predicted $112.9 million in revenue and $0.39 in losses per share. Citigroup analysts subsequently downgraded Jive from buy to neutral, with a $21 price target.
Now what: Jive's new projections don't seem so low as to justify this correction on their own. Revenue was up 51% from the year-ago quarter, and losses in that year-ago quarter were a weighty $0.68 per share. Jive remains a possible takeover target, especially in light of Microsoft's (Nasdaq: MSFT ) recent acquisition of enterprise social-networking competitor Yammer for $1.2 billion. Jive's current market cap is less than $1 billion, so it could be bought at a premium by any number of large tech companies.
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