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Stocks for the Long Run: Texas Instruments vs. the S&P 500

Investing isn't easy. Even Warren Buffett counsels that most investors should invest in a low-cost index like the S&P 500. That way, "you'll be buying into a wonderful industry, which in effect is all of American industry," he says.

But there are, of course, companies whose long-term fortunes differ substantially from the index. In this series, we look at how individual stocks have performed against the broad S&P 500.

Step on up, Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN  ) .

Texas Instruments shares have easily outperformed the S&P 500 over the last quarter-century (including an absurd pop during the tech bubble):

Source: S&P Capital IQ.

Since 1987, shares have returned an average of 11.3% a year, compared with 9.7% a year for the S&P (both include dividends). That difference adds up. One thousand dollars invested in the S&P in 1987 would be worth $19,200 today. In Texas Instruments, it'd be worth $30,800.

Dividends accounted for a lot of those gains. Compounded since 1987, dividends have made 28% of Texas Instruments' total returns. For the S&P, dividends account for 39% of total returns.

Now have a look at how Texas Instruments earnings compare with S&P 500 earnings:

Source: S&P Capital IQ.

There's some outperformance. Since 1995, earnings per share have increased by an average of 7.3% per year, compared with 6% annual growth for the broader index.

What's that meant for valuations? Texas Instruments has traded for an average of 40 times earnings since 1987 -- well above the 24 times earnings average of the S&P 500. It's far different today, however. Texas Instruments currently trades at a more reasonable 14 times next year's earnings.

Through it all, shares have been strong performers over the last quarter-century.  

Of course, the important question is whether that will continue. That's where you come in. Our CAPS community currently ranks Texas Instruments with a four-star rating (out of five). Do you disagree? Leave your thoughts in the comment section below, or add Texas Instruments to My Watchlist.

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Fool contributor Morgan Housel doesn't own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this article. Follow him on Twitter @TMFHousel. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.


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