September 11, 2012
Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of TIBCO Software (Nasdaq: TIBX ) dropped by as much as 10% after an analyst downgrade, and then proceeded to mostly recover as the company officially disputed some of the analyst's remarks.
So what: ThinkEquity analyst Yun Kim downgraded the company's rating from buy to hold, while reducing his price target from $35 to $32. According to the analyst's "checks," TIBCO may soon substantially reduce its employee headcount and those layoffs could result in challenges in execution as well as slower growth going forward.
Now what: In response to the drop, TIBCO has issued a formal statement saying that the third-party research is inaccurate and that the company has not taken any such steps and furthermore is not contemplating it, either. TIBCO also says it has not incurred any related restructuring charges, helping to prop shares back up from the lows. It's a round of "my word against yours," but in this case I'd go with first-party statements and SEC filings over third-party research and checks.
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