Here’s What This Market Wizard Has Been Buying and Selling

Every quarter, many money managers have to disclose what they've bought and sold, via "13F" filings. Their latest moves can shine a bright light on smart stock picks.

Today, let's look at Tudor Investment, founded in 1980 by Paul Tudor Jones and featuring the flagship Tudor BVI fund. Jones, featured in Jack Schwager's Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders, was one of the few to foresee the 1987 market crash (and he made many millions on it, as well). Known for focusing on short-term trading, equity, venture capital, debt, currency, and commodity markets, he has recently been employing a more conservative strategy, resulting in some performances that have been less spectacular than usual.


The company's reportable stock portfolio totaled $2.7 billion in value as of June 30, 2012.

Interesting developments
What does Tudor Investment’s latest quarterly 13F filing tell us? Here are a few interesting details:

New holdings include EnCana (NYSE: ECA  ) , which has been selling off its more mature properties, and thereby positioning itself to benefit more from its gas liquids business. A glut of natural gas has hurt many companies, but our analysts think the glut may shrink in the near future. EnCana offers investors a dividend yield of about 3.5%, as well. There are investigations afoot, though, into whether it participated in any collusion with competitors in regard to land leases. To reassure investors, EnCana recently announced that its Board of Directors had an independent investigation performed, which found no wrongdoing.

Among holdings in which Tudor Investment increased its stake was Nuance Communications (Nasdaq: NUAN  ) . Nuance has profited handsomely by supplying its speech-recognition software to Apple devices -- think Siri -- and other devices, and the debut of the iPhone 5 is likely to spur sales further. Many are bullish over its new business applications, too, such as ones for the medical field, and voice biometric technology that can identify customers without passwords or questioning. Nuance recently reported record sales of its Dragon Medical offerings. Its move into the auto industry has been a success, too, with its technology now in some 70 million vehicles.

Tudor Investment reduced its stake in lots of companies, including Heckmann (NYSE: HEK  ) , which specializes in delivering and processing water. It serves the growing fracking activities of natural-gas companies, but the low price of the gas has put a damper on that. Heckmann is turning more attention to more profitable shale oil projects, and is also buying the oil recycler Thermo Fluids. There's plenty to like about Heckmann, but right now it carries a lot of debt and is cash-flow negative. That debt load will rise, too, due to a recent purchase of Power Fuels, but many are bullish about the acquisition. The company also turned its bottom line from red to black recently.

Finally, Tudor Investment unloaded several companies, such as Dendreon (Nasdaq: DNDN  ) and Entropic Communications (Nasdaq: ENTR  ) . Dendreon launched a promising prostate-cancer drug a while back, but ran into trouble when many doctors balked at prescribing it, due to its steep price. Then, when demand rose, the company had trouble keeping up with it. Another concern is the recent FDA approval of Medivation's prostate-cancer drug, Xtandi. The company has announced a restructuring plan, but some just hope it will be bought out by another company.

Entropic, focusing on semiconductor technology for the home entertainment niche, has bought the set-top business of bankrupt Trident Microsystems, and is working to get into the Internet-TV business as well. Bulls like its double-digit revenue growth and its balance sheet, while bears fret over its volatility, falling margins, potential overdependence on a few customers, and competing technologies. The MoCA chips it sells to customers such as Verizon are selling well, and the company recently upped its earnings projections.

We should never blindly copy any investor's moves, no matter how talented the investor. But it can be useful to keep an eye on what smart folks are doing. And 13-F forms can be great places to find intriguing candidates for our portfolios.

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Longtime Fool contributor Selena Maranjian, whom you can follow on Twitter, owns shares of Apple, Intel, and Entropic Communications, but she holds no other position in any company mentioned. Click here to see her holdings and a short bio. The Motley Fool owns shares of Intel, Apple, Dendreon, and Heckmann. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Intel, Apple, and Nuance Communications, as well as creating a bull call spread position in Apple. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Read/Post Comments (7) | Recommend This Article (3)

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  • Report this Comment On September 15, 2012, at 10:30 PM, joclassic wrote:

    power fuels has a EPS of .40cents

    heckmann has a EPS of .30 cents

    combine EPS .70cents PE ratio of 7

    waste managment has a PE ratio of 17

    if you compare waste manangment to hekmann then heckmann should be trading at $11 to $12

  • Report this Comment On September 16, 2012, at 4:11 AM, tecno1 wrote:

    Tudor reduced its stake in Hek before the recent aquisition of Power Fuels. Hek is a very different company today. About 70% of revenue from the combined Company come from oil an liquids-rich plays now and only 30% natural gas!

    A high growth Company like Hek in the early beginning with P/E < 10 is a compelling value and deserves a higher P/E than a "matured" like WM.

    Here´s the transcript of the mergers conference call. Very helpful!

    http://ir.heckmanncorp.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=217286&p=irol...

    Dick Heckmann:

    "... there should be no doubt in anybody´s mind that this is the beginning, not the middle, or the end. This is the very beginning of where this business is going to go."

  • Report this Comment On September 16, 2012, at 2:53 PM, alexxthegreat wrote:

    What Tudor does, I do the opposite and usually win.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2012, at 1:16 PM, lebronz wrote:

    Happy Monday Selena...!

    Hey, so you sport a B.A. in anthropology from Brown University, a master's in teaching from Brown, and an M.B.A. from Wharton.

    EXCELLENT SELENA!

    So how about telling the TRUTH in your articles concerning DNDN!

    Is the Tudor info you got on DNDN from Q1 or Q2, 2012? My research tells me Tudor sold 275k shares of DNDN way back in Q1 (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/923093/00011931251223...

    Seems like your article dated 2 days ago is teaching your audience, of who knows how many, that Tudor Investments, who only manages about $1.65B in total assets, to SELL DNDN because they sold a measly 275k shares way back in Jan-March timeframe. What purpose or agenda do you have I wonder.

    Did you know that large institutions, that manage way more in assets than Tudor, still own 61% of DNDN? Vanguard, who manages $687B in assets for instance, currently owns over 8 million shares of DNDN... and your touting Tudor Investment selling their paltry 275K shares of DNDN way back in Q1?

    If you taught school in Maine, I hope you were more ethical as a school teacher than you are as a writer about DNDN.

    Here are some facts Selena b4 you go writing & teaching falsehoods about DNDN's near term future potential in any future articles:

    Focus on the American Cancer Society facts that:

    *1-2 million men have prostate cancer (pc) in the U.S.

    *271,740 men will/have been diagnosed with pc this year.

    *10% or almost 100,000 men from the 1-2 million man pool have mCRPC (Provenge label).

    *30-35,000 men are newly diagnosed throughout the year with mCRPC (Provenge label).

    *30,000 men die each year from pc.

    *The baby boomer influx over the next 2-7 years only sustains or increases these numbers.

    *The European population of men with PC is similar to the U.S (EU approval of Provenge is up 4 decision next Summer, 2013).

    Selena, in the future please don't write articles that:

    *Surround DNDN in fear, uncertainty, & doubt (FUD).

    *Apply common stock metrics that investors look at (EPS, etc), revenue/debt or so called balance sheet numbers because wallstreet analysts already focus here. DNDN is still evolving from a R&D biotech to a commercial powerhouse! Cogs are high because who in the world today does what they do>?

    *Talks about a silly lawsuit rumor, because it will be settled by DNDN (if it even gets anywhere), just like how every big pharma settles lawsuits with their insurance or enormous cash coffers.

    *Spins the NJ plant closing/ 600 layoffs as a negative. Corporations close plants all the time! The 2 other, high tech, 155,000 square foot facilities in Seal Beach, CA and Atlanta GA can more than handle U.S. demand and then some (when other immunotherapies come down the pipe like Neuvenge for bladder cancer, etc).

    *Talks about pending bankruptcy claims because DNDN OWNS THE FIRST EVER FDA APPROVED (12 year patent exclusivity under Obamacare), novel, game changing therapeutic immunotherapy cancer vaccine. Dying men from prostate cancer want to sustain their quality of life and they can play golf the following weekend after being treated with Provenge.

    Instead, have your Fewlish article or future articles on DNDN FOCUS on ONE THING.

    FOCUS ON THE SIZE OF THE MARKET FOR PROVENGE (RE-READ STATISTICS ARE ABOVE)!

    After reading the statistics above again Selena, realize that Dndn is currently treating about 900 men per quarter (3600 men/year) which is $83M in quarterly revenue ($93,000 x 900=$83M).

    Let's ignore the 100K men living with mCRPC. Let's just take the 30,000 men figure that are newly diagnosed with mCRPC throughout a year and divide it by 4.

    That equates to 7500 men newly diagnosed each quarter with mCRPC.

    Realise that Dndn is only treating about 900 men out of the 7500 men newly diagnosed with mCRPC each quarter. That's less then 1/7th of the available mCRPC population.

    Dndn's current annual treatment rate is 3600 (900x4) men or $335MM annual revenue rate.

    Remember, 7500 men are newly diagnosed w/ mCRPC each quarter.

    And remember, we're not including those 100,000 men already living with mCRPC!!

    Here are Provenge quarterly sales Selena since launch back in April, 2010 when the FDA finally approved Provenge. How does this look like for quarter over quarter sales revenue growth to you?

    Q2/10: $2.8M (30 dying men treated)

    Q3/10: $20.2M (215 dying men treated)

    Q4/10: $25M (269 dying men treated)

    2010 Revenue Total: $48M (514 men)

    Q1/11: $28M (301 dying men treated)

    Q2/11: $49.6M (533 dying men treated)

    Q3/11: $64.3M (691 dying men treated)

    Q4/11: $77M (828 dying men treated)

    2011 Revenue Total: $220M (2366 men)

    Q1/12: $82M (882 dying men treated)

    Q2/12: $80M (861 dying men treated)

    Q3/12: TBD

    Q4/12: TBD

    2012 Revenue Total So Far: $162M

    Total Revenue Since Provenge Launched: $430MM (Only 4,623 men treated with Provenge so far;

    TREATING JUST 4,623 MEN SINCE PROVENGE LAUNCH 2.5 YEARS AGO BARELY MAKES A DENT IN THE OVERALL U.S. mCRPC market!

    I KNOW IT, MY MOM KNOWS IT, AND YOU FEWLS KNOW IT!

    SO WRITE ABOUT THAT SOMETIME SELENA!

    ARE YOU REALLY GOING TO FOCUS ON THE TINY 2 MILLION DECREASE FROM Q1 TO Q2 THIS YEAR AFTER SEEING THE QUARTER OVER QUARTER GROWTH SINCE LAUNCH?

    ARE YOU REALLY GOING TO FOCUS ON THE 6 MILLION SHORTFALL FROM MANIPULATED CONSENSUS ANALYST ESTIMATE OF 86 MILLION FOR Q2?

    Finally Selena, ignore the threats of competion (Zytiga, MDV3100) because, unfortunately, now you know there are more than enough men to go around to all players in the PC space. Wallstreet & their institutional clients (currently own 61% of dndn outstanding shares) want you to believe that competition will drive down Provenge sales.

    There are 3 reasons why this is bogus Selena!

    First, ethical doctors (urologists/oncologists) will treat dying patients with their interests at heart, not the competition.

    Second, doctors will "sequence" the available pc therapies to extend survival of the dying patient to the max!

    And third, there is a little bitty incentive for doctors to infuse Provenge. It's only $5500 per patient.

    Get ready Selena! Wallstreet has been manipulating/shorting DNDN over time (42MM shares short) to keep prices depressed the remainder of 2012 (short to distort tactic) to get your shares.. if you have any.

    The new CEO Johnson is working with the LARGE SHAREHOLDERS now too to keep expectational guidance modest

    The CEO philosophy is called "Underpromise to Overdeliver"!

    Are you on wallstreets side Selena or the average retailerz side. The average retailer needs to be taught by ethical teachers writing about DNDN?

    How bout telling us to hold dndn shares tightly (don't set limits up or down) Selena? Or Tell us that Dndn will become the next Celgene beginning late next Summer when CEO Johnson surprises, and the shorts cover (not because they have to cover, but to simply support the surprise).

    With your Brown Education, You and I know that $500B to $1T large institutions/hedge funds don't HAVE TO COVER SHORT SHARES because they need to cover the 50 or 100 million dollar loss because the stock price rises. You and I know they are hedged long as well. A 50, 100, or 200MM loss is pennies to these mega wealthy hedgie/tutes that manage $500B to $1T in assets! The hedgie tutes will cover their shorts to support any good news reported by DNDN or whenever they are ready too.

    Read up on the "short to distort" tactic used by institutions/hedge funds to depress stock prices over time and wear down the retailer to SELL their stock.

    Oh, and the reason mega institutions/hedgies do this is because DNDN WILL NOT DO ANOTHER SECONDARY SO THESE INSTITUTIONS/HEDGIE FUNDS THAT WANT IN HAVE TO BUY DIRECT FROM THE MARKET!

    Dndn soon will become the next Celgene back when they launched Revlimid in their initial drug launch heyday!

    Cheers Selena and have a great week!

    Labronz!

    PS: If you truly have the heart of an ethical teacher, you'll edit this or write another article on DNDN stating how the 13 F info on Tudo is from Q1 and not Q2! Your fewl audience is your classroom Selena and I know you realize that!

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2012, at 2:07 PM, lebronz wrote:

    Oh, and Selena.., you state in your article,

    "Dendreon launched a promising prostate-cancer drug a while back, but ran into trouble when many doctors balked at prescribing it, due to its steep price. Then, when demand rose, the company had trouble keeping up with it. Another concern is the recent FDA approval of Medivation's prostate-cancer drug, Xtandi. The company has announced a restructuring plan, but some just hope it will be bought out by another company."

    As you can see in my previous comment concerning quarter over quarter growth, your statements are quite in-accurate! Medicare pays for this life-saving cancer vaccine. Demand is definitely high. And as far as DNDN keeping up, they have 2 facilities that can support $1B to $2B of Provenge.

    Since you're probably versed in "negotiation" with your training from Brown and Harvard (which btw, probably offers the most intensive training on negotiation and that's GREAT!), you probably realize spreading falsehoods PURPOSELY about a known battleground stock such as DNDN...,just to gain reader attention so they comment (like I did; yep, you got me hook, line, and sinker) is even more un-ethical than writing for the sake of mis-representing facts (like your claim that Tudor sold dndn in Q2 versus way back in Q1).

    This is something Adam F from the Street does to gain reader attention and this generates emotion from his readers and thus generates more "hits" on his articles.

    Please don't write falsehoods about a company treating dying prostate cancer patients who've waited years for this cancer immunotherapy to be approved even though we live in a BIG PHARMA INDUSTRY DOMINATED BY THEIR MEGA-BILLION DOLLAR REVENUE GENERATING TOXIC, KILLER CHEMOTHERAPY REGIMENS OUT THERE TODAY!

    THANKYOU

    LEBRONZ

  • Report this Comment On September 19, 2012, at 6:21 AM, techperson wrote:

    What Lebronz said.

  • Report this Comment On September 27, 2012, at 3:06 PM, lebronz wrote:

    Shame on you Selena

    lebronz

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