Why Imperva's Shares Are Impervious to the Bears Today

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Imperva (NYSE: IMPV  ) are up by 7% today, after an opening-bell spike took the stock as much as 9% higher, thanks to a surprise earnings beat. The market has apparently shrugged off severely negative EPS guidance in favor of celebrating today's victory.

So what: Imperva reported $31.8 million in revenue and an adjusted profit of $0.06 per share, which came in well ahead of Wall Street's expectations of $0.02 per share. For the current quarter, Imperva's management anticipates $27.0 million to $27.5 million in revenue, which will result in an adjusted net loss of between $0.09 and $0.11 per share. The top-line estimate matches Wall Street's $27.2 million expectation, but the bottom-line guidance was far below analysts' consensus estimate of a $0.01 loss per share. For the full year, Imperva projects $131 million to $135 million in revenue, resulting in $0.15 to $0.21 in EPS. Full-year revenue guidance surpassed Wall Street's $127.9 million consensus, but in EPS terms, Wall Street's $0.26 projection handily beats Imperva's own numbers.

Now what: Imperva could provide another set of surprises this year, as it also expected $0.02 in EPS this quarter in its guidance from late 2012. However, this is not the sort of report that, on the whole, should merit a major pop. I'd stay on the sidelines until further details emerge.

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