March 12, 2013
Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of AVG Technologies (NYSE: AVG ) have gotten crushed today by as much as 11% following an analyst downgrade.
So what: Morgan Stanley cut its rating on AVG from "overweight" to "equal weight," in part due to the surprise resignation of CEO J.R. Smith that led to a sell-off last week. The transition in leadership introduces a new risk factor for AVG at a time when its business is already in a precarious position.
Now what: The analyst believes that AVG's outlook for 2013 is conservative and the valuation is attractive, but the short-term picture is less clear due to the new management uncertainties. Morgan Stanley notes that other software companies in recent memory have shown that transitions can sometimes take longer than expected. The next several quarters will be key to regaining investor confidence.
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