Auto info specialist Edmunds.com announced yesterday that based on current trends, it anticipates U.S. auto sales to fall more than 5% sequentially in June to almost 1.37 million new cars and trucks sold, for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.5 million light vehicles.
However, Edmunds sees the longer-term trend as positive, since the number represents a 6.3% increase from June 2012 and suggests the biggest volume and seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for the month of June since 2007.
Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell was quoted in a press release as saying: "The first half of 2013 was every bit as strong as the auto industry could expect at the beginning of the year, and there's no reason why the next six months can't maintain the same momentum."
The biggest sales gainer in June in year-over-year terms will be Ford (NYSE: F ) , which is expected to see sales jump 11.7%, according to Edmunds, though the June sales are expected to be down 5.9% from May. Chrysler is second with a 10.1% predicted YOY increase (but off 4.3% sequentially), followed by Honda (NYSE: HMC ) at up 9.3% year-over-year (down 2.5% sequentially).
While General Motors (NYSE: GM ) is forecast to be one of the weakest June performers in terms of year-over-year growth, at just 1.3%, Edmunds predicts it will be the best performer month-to-month, seeing sales drop just 0.3%.
As a result of the forecast June sales numbers, Ford is expected to gain the most market share of any of the car manufacturers, adding 0.8 percentage points to its total year-over-year, while GM loses 0.9 percentage points. However, Edmunds predicts GM gained 0.9 percentage points of share from May while Ford lost 0.1 percentage points in the month-to-month comparison.
Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 12.7 million vehicles in June, with fleet transactions accounting for 18.4% of total sales. An estimated 3.07 million used cars will be sold in June, for a SAAR of 37.2 million, down from to 3.12 million used car sales in May, for a SAAR of 36.6 million.