Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of SPS Commerce (SPSC 1.45%) have gained over 14% today after the company came through with better-than-expected earnings, even though forward guidance seemed a little soft.
So what: SPS reported revenue of $25.7 million and adjusted earnings of $0.13 per share for the second quarter, which beat analyst estimates of $24.6 million on the top line and $0.12 in EPS. The top-line result was 44% greater than the year-ago quarter's revenue, but adjusted earnings per share only grew by $0.02 year over year.
Coming up, the company now expects third-quarter revenue in the $26 million to $26.5 million range, against a $25.4 million consensus, and between $0.11 and $0.13 in EPS, which hits the $0.13 consensus on the high end. For the full year, SPS' $102 million to $103 million revenue range slightly exceeds the $100.4 million consensus, but its EPS range of $0.49 to $0.51 only touches the consensus on its upper limit.
Now what: SPS has already doubled over the past year, which is far more than can be said of either revenue or net income. Investors might be expecting big things in the future, but at a market cap of nearly $1 billion, SPS will have to increase its annual revenue nearly tenfold just to get its P/E down to the double digits. Do you think that's possible? If so, you might want to dig deeper. Otherwise, it might be time to step away.
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