Airline Investors Should Heed Warren Buffett's Wisdom

Airline investors made lots of money in 2013 by ignoring Warren Buffett's advice to avoid the sector. In 2014, they would be well advised to heed the Oracle of Omaha's wisdom.

Jan 5, 2014 at 10:45AM

It's well known that investing legend Warren Buffett avoids airline stocks like the plague. He once blamed an investment in US Airways on "temporary insanity" -- even though he actually made money on the trade! Despite Buffett's aversion to airline stocks, they have been among the best performing investments of the past year. Investors who ignored his advice about airline stocks last year did very well.

However, airline investors should heed a more general piece of wisdom from Warren Buffett: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." At this time last year, airline stocks were still hated, and this made them a good contrarian investment.


United Continental is one of many airlines that are priced for significant long-term margin growth.

By contrast, the big airlines such as Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL), United Continental (NYSE:UAL), American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL), and Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) have very bullish expectations baked into their stock prices today. As a result, it's a good time for airline investors to be fearful, and consider taking profits.

Buyer beware?
Buffett believes airlines are terrible investments because they tend to require lots of upfront capital investment to grow quickly but earn razor-thin profit margins. However, some airlines are more capital-intensive than others.

Among the "big four," United and American are plowing every bit of cash they generate into their aircraft fleets. By contrast, Delta and Southwest are taking a more measured approach to capital investment.


Delta Air Lines has managed to avoid many of the pitfalls of the airline industry.

More importantly, some airlines have been able to boost their profit margins in recent years. Delta Air Lines proudly announced last month that it had earned a record-setting profit in 2013. After a very strong December, the company appears likely to post a pre-tax margin of nearly 7% for the full year.

Thus, Buffett's blanket criticism of investing in airlines seems too harsh. A bigger concern is that airline valuation multiples have soared this year. United and Delta have seen their forward earnings multiples double since early 2013, while Southwest has also seen substantial multiple expansion:

UAL PE Ratio (Forward 1y) Chart

Airline Forward Earnings Multiples; data by YCharts.

Southwest's valuation is now roughly in line with the broader market. While United and Delta still seem fairly cheap based on forward earnings multiples, their balance sheets are not as good as a typical large-cap company. (The same will be the case for the new American Airlines.) Moreover, the airline industry is extremely competitive and has fairly minimal barriers to entry and expansion, justifying lower multiples for airline stocks in general.

But everything's different!
A common refrain among airline bulls is that "everything's different this time." In other words, while every other upturn in the industry has been followed (eventually) by a downturn, bulls argue that airlines now have a clear path to substantial and sustainable earnings. Typically, this is attributed to the recent wave of consolidation in the industry, which has reduced competition, or to a new profit-oriented mind-set among airline executives.

In reality, this is a dangerous over-simplification. It does appear that airlines are becoming more disciplined about keeping capacity growth in line with demand. This should allow airlines to earn back their cost of capital over the course of the business cycle. The endless cycle of airline bankruptcies is over.

However, some airlines are already earning more than their cost of capital, and sector valuations now imply that airline earnings will rise even further. In other words, many airlines now trade as if they can sustainably earn well beyond their cost of capital.

This argument is harder to swallow. While the top four carriers now control more than 80% of the domestic market, if they attempt to exploit this position to earn monopoly-like profits, smaller and hungrier airlines will expand to grab a share of that profit. The major airlines have no moat to stop competitors from growing and stealing market share if there's lots of money to be made.

Indeed, at the peak of the last airline bull market in 1999, Southwest Airlines' revenue was just $4.7 billion, less than JetBlue Airways' (NASDAQ:JBLU) 2013 revenue. Since then, Southwest has grown significantly to become one of the "big four" airlines.

Jetblue A

JetBlue is a relatively small player today, but that won't be true in a decade. (Photo: JetBlue.)

Today, Spirit Airlines (NASDAQ: SAVE) and JetBlue look like the two carriers most likely to grow aggressively and challenge the "big four." Both carriers already have large numbers of planes on order through the end of the decade. If industry profit margins continue to rise, they would be likely to ramp up expansion plans even further.

Time to reassess
The growth of smaller carriers won't happen all at once. In fact, it's quite likely that airline profit margins will rise again in 2014. However, investors shouldn't be tricked into thinking this is the "new normal." If 2014 turns out to be as good as the early signs indicate, capacity growth is likely to ramp up in 2015 to the point that industry margins stagnate or begin contracting.

To put it simply, airline investors have started to become greedy. Many have quickly written off decades of turbulence in the airline industry, even though every other airline bull market in history has eventually ended with a big downturn. Wise investors should heed Warren Buffett's wisdom and be fearful when looking at the airlines in 2014. Don't sell in a panic, but be wary of viewing the airline industry through rose-colored glasses: This is still one of the riskiest businesses out there.

The best of Warren Buffett
Are you looking for more of the best advice Warren Buffet has to offer? Through the years, Buffett has offered up investing tips to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. Now you can tap into the best of Warren Buffett's wisdom in a new special report from The Motley Fool. Click here now for a free copy of this invaluable report.

Adam Levine-Weinberg is short shares of United Continental Holdings. The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

1 Key Step to Get Rich

Our mission at The Motley Fool is to help the world invest better. Whether that’s helping people overcome their fear of stocks all the way to offering clear and successful guidance on complicated-sounding options trades, we can help.

Feb 1, 2016 at 4:54PM

To be perfectly clear, this is not a get-rich action that my Foolish colleagues and I came up with. But we wouldn't argue with the approach.

A 2015 Business Insider article titled, "11 websites to bookmark if you want to get rich" rated The Motley Fool as the #1 place online to get smarter about investing.

"The Motley Fool aims to build a strong investment community, which it does by providing a variety of resources: the website, books, a newspaper column, a radio [show], and [newsletters]," wrote (the clearly insightful and talented) money reporter Kathleen Elkins. "This site has something for every type of investor, from basic lessons for beginners to investing commentary on mutual funds, stock sectors, and value for the more advanced."

Our mission at The Motley Fool is to help the world invest better, so it's nice to receive that kind of recognition. It lets us know we're doing our job.

Whether that's helping the entirely uninitiated overcome their fear of stocks all the way to offering clear and successful guidance on complicated-sounding options trades, we want to provide our readers with a boost to the next step on their journey to financial independence.

Articles and beyond

As Business Insider wrote, there are a number of resources available from the Fool for investors of all levels and styles.

In addition to the dozens of free articles we publish every day on our website, I want to highlight two must-see spots in your tour of

For the beginning investor

Investing can seem like a Big Deal to those who have yet to buy their first stock. Many investment professionals try to infuse the conversation with jargon in order to deter individual investors from tackling it on their own (and to justify their often sky-high fees).

But the individual investor can beat the market. The real secret to investing is that it doesn't take tons of money, endless hours, or super-secret formulas that only experts possess.

That's why we created a best-selling guide that walks investors-to-be through everything they need to know to get started. And because we're so dedicated to our mission, we've made that available for free.

If you're just starting out (or want to help out someone who is), go to, drop in your email address, and you'll be able to instantly access the quick-read guide ... for free.

For the listener

Whether it's on the stationary exercise bike or during my daily commute, I spend a lot of time going nowhere. But I've found a way to make that time benefit me.

The Motley Fool offers five podcasts that I refer to as "binge-worthy financial information."

Motley Fool Money features a team of our analysts discussing the week's top business and investing stories, interviews, and an inside look at the stocks on our radar. It's also featured on several dozen radio stations across the country.

The hosts of Motley Fool Answers challenge the conventional wisdom on life's biggest financial issues to reveal what you really need to know to make smart money moves.

David Gardner, co-founder of The Motley Fool, is among the most respected and trusted sources on investing. And he's the host of Rule Breaker Investing, in which he shares his insights into today's most innovative and disruptive companies ... and how to profit from them.

Market Foolery is our daily look at stocks in the news, as well as the top business and investing stories.

And Industry Focus offers a deeper dive into a specific industry and the stories making headlines. Healthcare, technology, energy, consumer goods, and other industries take turns in the spotlight.

They're all informative, entertaining, and eminently listenable ... and I don't say that simply because the hosts all sit within a Nerf-gun shot of my desk. Rule Breaker Investing and Answers contain timeless advice, so you might want to go back to the beginning with those. The other three take their cues from the market, so you'll want to listen to the most recent first. All are available at

But wait, there's more

The book and the podcasts – both free ... both awesome – also come with an ongoing benefit. If you download the book, or if you enter your email address in the magical box at the podcasts page, you'll get ongoing market coverage sent straight to your inbox.

Investor Insights is valuable and enjoyable coverage of everything from macroeconomic events to investing strategies to our analyst's travels around the world to find the next big thing. Also free.

Get the book. Listen to a podcast. Sign up for Investor Insights. I'm not saying that any of those things will make you rich ... but Business Insider seems to think so.

Compare Brokers