Is J.C. Penney a Screaming Buy?

With shares of J.C. Penney Company (NYSE: JCP  ) trading 74% below their 52-week high of $23.10, the Foolish investor is probably wondering if now might be a great time to buy.  Right now, an investment in the retailer is not without risk, but if the business can turn around, the rewards could be rich. 

J.C. Penney has been hit hard lately
Mike Ullman, J.C. Penney's former CEO, retired in 2011. The company brought on Ron Johnson, a now-former executive from Apple, to be his replacement. Immediately, Johnson set about transforming the retailer so that it could, in his mind, be in a prime position to tackle its competitors moving forward.

As part of Johnson's initiative, the company discontinued its use of coupon-based advertising and, instead, focused on providing everyday low prices. Instead of increasing sales though, this move served to disenfranchise its customer base and send business elsewhere, such as Macy's (NYSE: M  ) and Dillard's (NYSE: DDS  ) . After revenue declined 25% between 2011 and 2012, the board of directors ousted Johnson and reinstated Ullman.

Even after Ullman resumed control of the helm, revenue continued to decline but a ray of hope has appeared. Because of Ullman's decision to begin offering coupons again and, possibly, due to the implementation of Johnson's store-within-a-store concept, comparable-store sales have started to improve. J.C. Penney announced that in October of last year, comparable-store sales rose 0.9% from the same month a year earlier. In November, the comparable-store sales increase hit 10.1%.

Is now a good time to buy J.C. Penney?
Despite the problems that persist at the retailer, some shareholders might ask if this is a prime opportunity to jump into the shares. On top of improving sales metrics, there is something that may prove particularly appealing about the company right now; its book value.

As of its most recent quarter, J.C. Penney's book value sat at $8.69 per share. In other words, if the company's book value does not change by the next quarter, and if book value would equate to market value should the business shut down and liquidate, investors are grabbing a piece of the business for 69% of what it's worth. Even better, if Ullman can bring the store back to profitability, the returns could be phenomenal.

Take, for example, the case of Dillard's. In its most recent quarterly report, Dillard's had a book value (including adding back its Treasury stock) of $88.05 per share. At the company's current market price of $88.73, this would imply that J.C. Penney, if restored to the kind of profitability seen by Dillard's, would be worth $8.76.

Macy's is an even more extreme example. A book value of $14.77 and a share price of $52.82 would value a restored J.C. Penney at $31.08 per share. However, just as with the Dillard's example, to receive this valuation J.C. Penney would not just have to recover, it would have to thrive and produce the kind of performance that Macy's has shown in recent years.

Foolish takeaway
Unfortunately, it's unknown whether J.C. Penney will survive its current predicament, but early results from late last year indicate that the retailer may be on its way to better times. If so, the upside for shareholders could be significant. On the other hand, should operations continue to deteriorate, the Foolish investor who decides to buy J.C. Penney's shares may be cushioned against too far of a drop because of the business's book value.

J.C. Penney's financial situation right now looks questionable, but so do other companies like Kohl's and Sears.  Now though, you can get the opportunity to find out about two very interesting retailers that could displace Wal-Mart as the big fish in retail. To learn about two retailers with especially good prospects, take a look at The Motley Fool's special free report: "The Death of Wal-Mart: The Real Cash Kings Changing the Face of Retail." In it, you'll see how these two cash kings are able to consistently outperform and how they're planning to ride the waves of retail's changing tide. You can access it by clicking here.


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Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On February 13, 2014, at 6:10 PM, MFslanderingJCP wrote:

    "J.C. Penney's financial situation right now looks questionable..."

    Just like the writers at MF always look questionable when slamming JCP over and over again.

  • Report this Comment On February 14, 2014, at 2:14 PM, dda123 wrote:

    This article is way way way off. The business history and description of the circumstances of Johnson's hiring, operations when he ran the show, and his replacement by Ullman, is wrong. Among other things Ullman didn't pick Johnson, the shareholders kicked Ullman out because sales performance was already a disaster by 2011.

    The comparable stores calculation is just wrong. November "comps" were up because of the length of the month given last year's hurricane. The company's comps for December and January revealed that net sales for 4Q were *down* 4-6%, not up. For an article published in February to miss that point is pretty glaring.

    The use of a BV/share-price metric is pretty far-out. The article ignores entirely both (a) JCP's massively increased debt load, and (b) its liquidity situation, which is what has led most analysts to predict an insolvency.

    Here's an article that goes into real depth and explains the situation: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1991901-j-c-penney-realistic...

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