Is a Good Investment Deal? and RetailMeNot are clearly trading with a lot of momentum, but does recent history from Groupon suggest that investors should tread more carefully?

Mar 10, 2014 at 9:00PM (NYSE:COUP) soared an incredible 87.5% last Friday to make an exceptional IPO debut. Yet, the performance of this IPO would almost imply investors learned nothing from Groupon (NASDAQ:GRPN). Thus, despite this failed lesson, do and peer RetailMeNot (NASDAQ:SALE) present shareholders with a good deal?

What's driving higher? is in the business of taking coupons found in a Sunday newspaper and presenting them online. It services consumer package goods companies and retailers on its site, and generates revenue when a coupon is either downloaded from its site or used in a store.

Last year, the company grew its top line by 50% and was able to earn $168 million in revenue. For this performance, scheduled a $130 million IPO with a midpoint price of $13, thus implying a market capitalization of $945 million.

Instead, the company upped the IPO price to $16 and then closed at $30, giving it a market capitalization of $2.2 billion. Clearly, the market sees room to grow and is willing to take a big bet on

Haven't we seen this before?
While not as hyped, is reminiscent of Groupon, another deal-based company's IPO from 2011. Groupon was one of the most anticipated IPOs of 2011, with 14 underwriters, and the stock price reached $30 for a 50% IPO pop, despite the company canceling much of its IPO roadshow and management dealing with a slew of questions regarding accounting practices.

Needless to say, Groupon had a lot of problems prior to its IPO, but investors were so fascinated with its daily deals and online couponing approach that they were apparently willing to forgive, forget, and value the company at nearly $20 billion. Now, we know those bets were unwise, as Groupon's current market cap sits at $5.7 billion and it has shifted focus away from online couponing in favor of e-commerce.

Groupon's online couponing business failed to produce consistent growth and was met with competing services from the likes of Google,, and even AT&T just to name a few. Still, Groupon was a large business at the time of its IPO, earning annual revenue of $1.6 billion, which gave it a price-to-sales ratio of more than 10 at its most expensive point.

Today, investors are paying a higher premium for  (and the same premium for RetailMeNot) for a business that is not only smaller, but also faces significantly more competition versus Groupon at the time of its IPO.

Hard to be bullish long-term
Currently, the single greatest catalyst for is its growth, or at least its performance in 2013. However, in an interview on CNBC, CEO said, "We're much more interested in growing in a measured, conservative way year-over-year," in response to a question of whether or not 50% growth was sustainable; his response was quite vague.

Essentially, cannot guarantee sustained growth, nor can it fundamentally support its 13 times sales multiple. The primary reasons are that couponing is a business with very few barriers to entry, and history is against There's also no social media element about the company's model.

With that said, RetailMeNot is's closest competitor, but rather than providing coupons on products such as laundry detergent or groceries, RetailMeNot offers customers deals at particular retail stores like Macy's, on brands like Hewlett-Packard, and at restaurants such as Ruby Tuesday. RetailMeNot offers a wide array of coupons not normally found in the Sunday morning paper, meaning its likelihood of longevity is greater than

Furthermore, at 11 times sales, RetailMeNot is cheaper; it has higher gross margins at 94%, versus 69% for Lastly, with 54% top-line growth last year, RetailMeNot fundamentally outperformed Therefore, it you're seeking an investment in the highly fragmented couponing industry, is likely not your best bet, as RetailMeNot looks better.

Final thoughts might be a horrible investment deal, but RetailMeNot might not be much better either. However, Groupon is a different story. Groupon's daily deals business reported $401 million in fourth-quarter sales, which is nearly double RetailMeNot and's full-year. Plus, with $400 million, Groupon has finally begun to see a year-over-year decline in the business, but its e-commerce business is growing at a consistent 50% rate.

This e-commerce business could pay long-term dividends to shareholders, but the speed with which Groupon grew and then ran dry should worry investors of RetailMeNot and The big question is at what point growth might become stagnant for and RetailMeNot, and at that point, will either company be able to innovate and create further investment value? Because these questions remain unanswered, and due to the valuation of, it clearly is not a good deal for shareholders.

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Brian Nichols has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends RetailMeNot. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

A Financial Plan on an Index Card

Keeping it simple.

Aug 7, 2015 at 11:26AM

Two years ago, University of Chicago professor Harold Pollack wrote his entire financial plan on an index card.

It blew up. People loved the idea. Financial advice is often intentionally complicated. Obscurity lets advisors charge higher fees. But the most important parts are painfully simple. Here's how Pollack put it:

The card came out of chat I had regarding what I view as the financial industry's basic dilemma: The best investment advice fits on an index card. A commenter asked for the actual index card. Although I was originally speaking in metaphor, I grabbed a pen and one of my daughter's note cards, scribbled this out in maybe three minutes, snapped a picture with my iPhone, and the rest was history.

More advisors and investors caught onto the idea and started writing their own financial plans on a single index card.

I love the exercise, because it makes you think about what's important and forces you to be succinct.

So, here's my index-card financial plan:


Everything else is details. 

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