A 100-Bagger 16 Years in the Making

David Gardner explains why he held onto Amazon through a 90% decline.

Mar 15, 2014 at 4:30PM

Co-founders Tom and David Gardner look back on The Motley Fool's journey with Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) since first purchasing it in September 1997. The brothers discuss the ups and downs they've seen with the stock, now a 100-bagger for the Fool.

In this video segment, David shares the experience of purchasing Amazon for $3, watching it go up to $95, then seeing it fall back to $7, only to rise again. His secret? Look at the business, not the stock, to see what's really going on.

A Foolish offer you can't refuse
Not every CEO can be as successful as Jeff Bezos has been with Amazon. But over the past two years, Motley fool co-founder and CEO Tom Gardner has made it his personal mission sit down with dozens of the world's brightest investors and business minds on behalf of his Motley Fool ONE members -- we're talking true American legends like Whole Foods co-CEO John Mackey, Costco founder Jim Sinegal, and even Vanguard founder Jack Bogle -- as he scours the globe to find the next great company to provide Amazon-esque returns.

On March 20, this "crown jewel" service will reopen to new members for only the third time ever. And to celebrate, Tom would like to offer you a front-row seat to watch these visionaries share the keen insights and unparalleled business acumen that got them to where they are in life.

Even if you aren't an investor, the business lessons you'll take from these conversations are priceless. So please click here to access our Motley Fool ONE member lobby and our entire collection of these interviews absolutely free of charge!

Tom Gardner: OK, I just want to put these factors together. I'm really restating what you've said.

If you're looking for the next 100-bagger today, you would be looking in a big trend that has a visionary leader, high sales growth rate, and you have connection to it as a consumer. That's not the only place to find the next 100-bagger, but those four factors would be a useful way. And maybe the fifth is that it's a relatively small company. There are visionary leaders at Google, but it's not going to be a 100-bagger over the next 10 years.

So, it's a smaller company -- let's say market cap sub-$2 billion -- visionary leader, big trend, high sales growth rate, with consumer connection to you. That would be a good way for somebody to look out for it.

David Gardner: That's not a bad template. One thing I want to point out is you've described, in many cases, just what cool businesses are. They have those things. A 100-bagger takes it from the realm of business, into investing and how you, as an investor, achieve a 100-bagger, which is what we've done in Amazon.

That's a little bit of a separate story, right? Because to get a 100-bagger ... Amazon is one of the few stocks that's actually done that, that you could have done in the last 20 years, and it took 16 years. It took watching that stock go from $3 -- our cost -- to $95, and then back to $7, and we held all the way through back to $95, and then $100, $200, $300. It took 16 years of patience in a world that is very myopic.

Tom: Six months is the average holding period.

David: A lot of people sell off in advance of bad ... worried about the next earnings. There's a whole separate story. We don't have to talk about it too much in this conversation ...

Tom: No, I like it actually. Were you worried? When it went from $95 to $7, did you second-guess yourself at any point? You had a 30-bagger as an investment, and you watched it fall.

David: To a two-bagger.

Tom: To a two-bagger. So, you still had the joy of saying, "I've doubled my money," but you watched a 90% decline and obviously, in order for a stock to decline that much, most people have sold. What is it that allowed you to hold that? What are some factors in your approach to portfolio management or individual company investment?

David: Sure, and I'm going to be quick, because we're going to run out of time, but I'll just say for now, it's mostly looking at the business, not the stock. You know that; I know I'm preaching to the choir -- although while Tom and I have kind of got it for about 20 years, I think a lot of the world doesn't think about things that way.

Every time I watch financial television -- which, by the way, I don't, really -- I'm reminded again of how people are thinking too much about stocks; wigs, wags and short-term moves, and they're not really looking at the business. While Amazon's stock dramatically declined over that, the business did not nearly.

And it's not just Amazon, obviously. I'll just throw in another example near and dear to our hearts: Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX).

Netflix stock dropped from a high in 2011-ish over $300, down to $55 within about 18 months. We held all the way down and we've held all the way back -- but did the business crumble? Even at its worst Qwikster moment, I think they lost about 500,000 subscribers from maybe 24 million to 23.5 million.

If you're looking at the business and you're not seeing any kind of drama there, I think it makes it a lot easier to continue to hold 30-baggers down to two-baggers, back to 100-plus-baggers.

John Mackey, co-CEO of Whole Foods Market, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Google, Netflix, and Whole Foods Market. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

1 Key Step to Get Rich

Our mission at The Motley Fool is to help the world invest better. Whether that’s helping people overcome their fear of stocks all the way to offering clear and successful guidance on complicated-sounding options trades, we can help.

Feb 1, 2016 at 4:54PM

To be perfectly clear, this is not a get-rich action that my Foolish colleagues and I came up with. But we wouldn't argue with the approach.

A 2015 Business Insider article titled, "11 websites to bookmark if you want to get rich" rated The Motley Fool as the #1 place online to get smarter about investing.

"The Motley Fool aims to build a strong investment community, which it does by providing a variety of resources: the website, books, a newspaper column, a radio [show], and [newsletters]," wrote (the clearly insightful and talented) money reporter Kathleen Elkins. "This site has something for every type of investor, from basic lessons for beginners to investing commentary on mutual funds, stock sectors, and value for the more advanced."

Our mission at The Motley Fool is to help the world invest better, so it's nice to receive that kind of recognition. It lets us know we're doing our job.

Whether that's helping the entirely uninitiated overcome their fear of stocks all the way to offering clear and successful guidance on complicated-sounding options trades, we want to provide our readers with a boost to the next step on their journey to financial independence.

Articles and beyond

As Business Insider wrote, there are a number of resources available from the Fool for investors of all levels and styles.

In addition to the dozens of free articles we publish every day on our website, I want to highlight two must-see spots in your tour of fool.com.

For the beginning investor

Investing can seem like a Big Deal to those who have yet to buy their first stock. Many investment professionals try to infuse the conversation with jargon in order to deter individual investors from tackling it on their own (and to justify their often sky-high fees).

But the individual investor can beat the market. The real secret to investing is that it doesn't take tons of money, endless hours, or super-secret formulas that only experts possess.

That's why we created a best-selling guide that walks investors-to-be through everything they need to know to get started. And because we're so dedicated to our mission, we've made that available for free.

If you're just starting out (or want to help out someone who is), go to www.fool.com/beginners, drop in your email address, and you'll be able to instantly access the quick-read guide ... for free.

For the listener

Whether it's on the stationary exercise bike or during my daily commute, I spend a lot of time going nowhere. But I've found a way to make that time benefit me.

The Motley Fool offers five podcasts that I refer to as "binge-worthy financial information."

Motley Fool Money features a team of our analysts discussing the week's top business and investing stories, interviews, and an inside look at the stocks on our radar. It's also featured on several dozen radio stations across the country.

The hosts of Motley Fool Answers challenge the conventional wisdom on life's biggest financial issues to reveal what you really need to know to make smart money moves.

David Gardner, co-founder of The Motley Fool, is among the most respected and trusted sources on investing. And he's the host of Rule Breaker Investing, in which he shares his insights into today's most innovative and disruptive companies ... and how to profit from them.

Market Foolery is our daily look at stocks in the news, as well as the top business and investing stories.

And Industry Focus offers a deeper dive into a specific industry and the stories making headlines. Healthcare, technology, energy, consumer goods, and other industries take turns in the spotlight.

They're all informative, entertaining, and eminently listenable ... and I don't say that simply because the hosts all sit within a Nerf-gun shot of my desk. Rule Breaker Investing and Answers contain timeless advice, so you might want to go back to the beginning with those. The other three take their cues from the market, so you'll want to listen to the most recent first. All are available at www.fool.com/podcasts.

But wait, there's more

The book and the podcasts – both free ... both awesome – also come with an ongoing benefit. If you download the book, or if you enter your email address in the magical box at the podcasts page, you'll get ongoing market coverage sent straight to your inbox.

Investor Insights is valuable and enjoyable coverage of everything from macroeconomic events to investing strategies to our analyst's travels around the world to find the next big thing. Also free.

Get the book. Listen to a podcast. Sign up for Investor Insights. I'm not saying that any of those things will make you rich ... but Business Insider seems to think so.


Compare Brokers