Where Can You Find the Next ExxonMobil?

Could this company one day join the ranks of big oil?

Mar 24, 2014 at 9:25AM

Gosh darn it! I missed it!

Over the past 30 years, ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) has been a remarkably strong investment. Since the beginning of 1984, the company has generated a 14% compounded annual return for investors. A $10,000 investment in ExxonMobil made at that time would be worth almost $510,000 today! 

However, we're unlikely to see that feat repeated again because ExxonMobil is in trouble. Thanks to the unfortunate math of the energy business, the company must run faster and faster just to stand in place. Today, ExxonMobil produces 4.3 million barrels per day. Yet the company must spend more than $40 billion per year just to stave off production declines, let alone grow output.

No, savvy investors must therefore look for the next ExxonMobil -- a company that has the potential to deliver double-digit growth for decades and one day join the ranks of big oil. And Bakken giant Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR) may just be what energy investors are looking for.

Is this company the next ExxonMobil?
Continental Resources is sitting on one of the greatest shale plays in American history: the North Dakota Bakken.

Thanks to new technologies like hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, billions of barrels of previously unexploitable oil have been unlocked. And this has allowed Continental to grow its production at a 38% annual clip over the past four years. The company's EBITDAX -- earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and exploration expenses -- has grown fivefold over that same time period.


Source: Continental Resources Investor Presentation

But the Bakken might just be the beginning. The company is exploring several new plays that could deliver returns far in excess of even the mighty Bakken. And this could allow Continental to sustain its production growth for far longer than investors currently anticipate.

Based on the latest findings from United States Geological Survey, the Three Forks formation, which sits directly underneath the Bakken, could be America's next big shale play. According to the USGS, the field could contain some 3.7 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable crude oil -- slightly larger than the Bakken shale that lies above it. 

Continental is even more optimistic. Last September company President and Chief Operating Officer Rick Bott estimated that the lower benches of the Three Forks could contain between 8 billion and 21 billion recoverable barrels of oil. 

There is also great optimism surrounding the company's position in a new shale field called the Southern Central Oklahoma Oil Province, or SCOOP. The play, an area more than 3,000 square miles in size, straddles the Anadarko Basin and the Woodford Shale. At its deepest the pay-zone is 400 feet deep, twice as thick as the Bakken. 

Continental CEO Harold Hamm is bullish. He estimates that there may be as much as 70 billion barrels of crude oil sitting in SCOOP; although the number of those barrels that will be economically recoverable is yet to be determined. The company has committed a $900 million investment to the field -- almost a quarter of its 2014 capital budget. 

Other industry names also see much potential in SCOOP. To date Newfield Exploration (NYSE:NFX) has drilled seven wells in the play with initial production rates averaging 900 barrels of oil equivalent per day. These results definitely suggest that the play could be economical. However, Newfield management has warned that more exploration work is needed.

Continental is busy derisking its Lower Three Forks and SCOOP acreage. As those reserves get booked in upcoming quarters, it could be a hidden catalyst for the stock. 

Foolish bottom line
Could Continental Resources one day join the ranks of big oil? That idea is not as absurd as it sounds. Thanks to a litany of new shale plays, the company is on track to triple production and proved reserves over the next five years. At the very least, energy investors hunting for big returns over the next three decades should be looking at fracking upstarts like Continental rather than industry behemoths like ExxonMobil.

Another way to play the changing energy landscape
Imagine a company that rents a very specific and valuable piece of machinery for $41,000… per hour (that’s almost as much as the average American makes in a year!). And Warren Buffett is so confident in this company’s can’t-live-without-it business model, he just loaded up on 8.8 million shares. An exclusive, brand-new Motley Fool report reveals the company we’re calling OPEC’s Worst Nightmare. Just click HERE to uncover the name of this industry-leading stock… and join Buffett in his quest for a veritable LANDSLIDE of profits!

Robert Baillieul has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

4 in 5 Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning

Don't be one of them.

Jun 12, 2015 at 5:01PM

Admitting fear is difficult.

So you can imagine how shocked I was to find out Warren Buffett recently told a select number of investors about the cutting-edge technology that's keeping him awake at night.

This past May, The Motley Fool sent 8 of its best stock analysts to Omaha, Nebraska to attend the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting. CEO Warren Buffett and Vice Chairman Charlie Munger fielded questions for nearly 6 hours.
The catch was: Attendees weren't allowed to record any of it. No audio. No video. 

Our team of analysts wrote down every single word Buffett and Munger uttered. Over 16,000 words. But only two words stood out to me as I read the detailed transcript of the event: "Real threat."

That's how Buffett responded when asked about this emerging market that is already expected to be worth more than $2 trillion in the U.S. alone. Google has already put some of its best engineers behind the technology powering this trend. 

The amazing thing is, while Buffett may be nervous, the rest of us can invest in this new industry BEFORE the old money realizes what hit them.

KPMG advises we're "on the cusp of revolutionary change" coming much "sooner than you think."

Even one legendary MIT professor had to recant his position that the technology was "beyond the capability of computer science." (He recently confessed to The Wall Street Journal that he's now a believer and amazed "how quickly this technology caught on.")

Yet according to one J.D. Power and Associates survey, only 1 in 5 Americans are even interested in this technology, much less ready to invest in it. Needless to say, you haven't missed your window of opportunity. 

Think about how many amazing technologies you've watched soar to new heights while you kick yourself thinking, "I knew about that technology before everyone was talking about it, but I just sat on my hands." 

Don't let that happen again. This time, it should be your family telling you, "I can't believe you knew about and invested in that technology so early on."

That's why I hope you take just a few minutes to access the exclusive research our team of analysts has put together on this industry and the one stock positioned to capitalize on this major shift.

Click here to learn about this incredible technology before Buffett stops being scared and starts buying!

David Hanson owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway and American Express. The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway, Google, and Coca-Cola.We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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