While Fools should generally take the opinion of Wall Street with a grain of salt, it's not a bad idea to take a closer look at particularly stock-shaking analyst upgrades and downgrades -- just in case their reasoning behind the call makes sense.
What: Shares of Urban Outfitters, Inc. (NASDAQ:URBN) fell 4% today after FBR Capital downgraded the apparel retailer from outperform to market perform.
So what: Along with the downgrade, analyst Susan Anderson lowered her price target to $37 (from $44), representing just 1% worth of upside to yesterday's close. So while contrarians might be attracted to Urban's price weakness over the past year, Anderson's call could reflect a sense on Wall Street that its ongoing top-line troubles will leave the stock range-bound.
Now what: According to FBR, Urban's risk/reward trade-off is pretty balanced at this point. "While we regard URBN as an omni-channel leader with a strong management team, we believe the stock will trade sideways in 2014 driven by continued UO weakness and the potential for Anthro/FP to slow with tougher compares in 2H14," said Anderson. "We do not see a near-term catalyst for a UO turnaround and believe that the segment will continue to be pressured by the shifting teen/young adult landscape (increased competition from e-commerce, fast fashion, international entrants, spending shifts)." With Urban shares flirting with their 52-week lows and sporting a reasonable forward P/E of 15, however, those short-term concerns might be providing patient Fools with a solid long-term opportunity.
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Brian Pacampara has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Urban Outfitters. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.