Why PBF Energy Inc's Stock Dropped Today

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of refiner PBF Energy Inc (NYSE: PBF  ) fell 11% today after oil exports were opened up in the U.S.

So what: Two oil producers will be allowed to export oil from the U.S., something that's been banned for 40 years. This could open up further exports, especially with oil imports dropping rapidly, which could raise costs for refiners. 

Now what: For oil exports to make sense, oil producers would have to be able to sell oil for higher prices internationally, which is possible today because the price of Brent crude is higher than WTI crude. This would raise input costs for refiners and lower margins unless gasoline prices go up, which they haven't done, even as oil has climbed. I'd look at refiners skeptically, especially with long-term oil consumption falling, which is going to have negative impact on demand.

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