Track the companies that matter to you. It's FREE! Click one of these fan favorites to get started: Apple; Google; Ford.

Recs

25

Is Sandridge Permian Trust Worth a Long-Term Investment?

Source: Eric Kounce via commons.wikimedia.org.

Editorial Note: This article was updated on May 5th, 2015 from the original article published on June 30th, 2014.

Sandridge Permian Trust's (NYSE: PER  ) distribution yield of almost 29% is enough to make just about every income investor say, "this is too good to be true." In the case of royalty trusts, that can very much be the case. Now that Sandridge Energy (NYSE: SD  )  has drilled its last well as part of the covenants with the Permain trust, the Sandridge Permian Trust will go into a state of perpetual decline until Sandridge dissolves the trust in 2031. So, the question for long-term investors is if they can make a decent return on the trust through its distributions before the party is over. To better understand this, let's run through a series of scenarios that will help give a clearer picture of what to expect from this Trust over the long term.

If you are looking at a royalty trust for the first time and are not quite sure what they are and how they operate, check out this quick primer

It's not a stock, so change your mind-set
A big trap for investors is to think that a royalty trust is a stock. It's not. Over the long term, share prices in a royalty trust should perpetually be in decline as the reserve base for that royalty trust is diminished. The only way a share price can go up is if the value of that commodity goes up faster than the reserve declines. So, when making an investment in an royalty trust, you should base your decision solely on whether the distributions that the trust will exceed the price you pay for a share. 

The Sandridge Permian Trust is quite possibly the most direct way an individual investor can make an investment on oil in the Permian Basin. Unlike the other trusts that have been issued by Sandridge Energy, the Permian trust is predominately an oil trust. Its current production is more than 85% oil, compared to the Sandridge Mississippian Trust I (NYSE: SDT  ) and Sandridge Mississippian Trust II (NYSE: SDR  ) , which produce about 36% and 45% oil, respectively. 

So, in this specific case, we are making the bet that oil from the wells in this particular part of the Permian basin will generate a return over the life of the wells greater than our original investment, and hopefully that return will be superior to other investment opportunities. 

Breaking down the return scenarios
In reality, we can't really predict the long-term return of a royalty trust because, frankly, we have no way of knowing what the price of oil will be in the future. Instead, we can look at the physical characteristics of the wells and how that will impact the distribution over time. Today, Sandridge estimates that the Permian Trust has about 11.8 million barrels of oil equivalent that can be extracted based on today's oil prices. Based on the most recent production numbers, the trust has a reserve to production ratio of a little more than 7.8 years. For the trust to last, until its terminal date in 2031, though, that would mean today's production would need to decline 10.3% on average to make the reserve last the entire duration of the trust.

Using this decline estimate and the current annual distribution, we can project a rough estimate of the trust's longtime return. Let's assume the trust's distribution declines at the same rate as production and that when the trust is liquidated at the end of its life, you get 10% of the current value of the trust. Using this assumption, the estimated return over the life of the trust would look something like this:

Source: 10-K via sec.gov, author's calculations.

So, based on those assumptions, and were the price oil to remain constant throughout the life of the trust, then you could potentially double your money over this 16 year period. Of course, there are likely to be some changes on oil prices over this time, so here's what those returns would look like if oil prices were to swing 25% in either direction. 

Scenario Estimated Return Over Life of Trust (16 years) Compounded Annual Growth Rate
Oil prices remain constant 148% 5.83%
Oil prices increase 25% 207% 7.26%
Oil prices decrease 25% 88% 4.02%

Authors note: These projections assume that distributions from the trust are not reinvested back into the trust

Based on these projections, an optimistic return on the trust would be an annualized compounded return of 7.26%, which assumes that oil prices over the life of the life of the trust will be 25% higher than what they are today. That isn't too much of a stretch considering where oil prices are today. Since 1871, when records were first kept, the S&P 500 has an inflation-adjusted compounded annual growth rate of 6.86%, so investing directly in the Permain trust would get you perhaps a percentage point better. However, the downside risk is that over that 16-year period, we could see another decline in oil prices, which would lead to a compounded annual return of only 4.02% and wouldn't do much to outpace the S&P 500.

What a Fool believes
If you were to invest in the Sandridge Permian Trust and hold it until its liquidation, it's very likely you won't lose money. So, if you are looking to protect your principal over a 15-year period, then perhaps the Sandridge Permian trust is a place to invest since it will likely beat inflation. At the same time, its future is completely reliant on where oil prices go from here. If history has taught us anything, it's that there is no real way for us to know this. Investors who want to play it safe shouldn't count on oil prices to rise any time soon. Based on this, there are probably better opportunities out there.

This $19 trillion industry could destroy the Internet
One bleeding-edge technology is about to put the World Wide Web to bed. And if you act quickly, you could be among the savvy investors who enjoy the profits from this stunning change. Experts are calling it the single largest business opportunity in the history of capitalism... The Economist is calling it "transformative"... But you'll probably just call it "how I made my millions." Don't be too late to the party -- click here for one stock to own when the Web goes dark.


Read/Post Comments (2) | Recommend This Article (25)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On October 24, 2014, at 12:50 AM, SMC22 wrote:

    Good article, but I didn't see any mention of the dividend, or that factoring into the calculations... Based on the share prices of Sand Ridge and their dividend ratios, they beat every dividend payer I have found...

    For instance, at the rate from 10/23/14, PER pays approx. $650 quarterly per $10,000 invested, while IBM pays $67.10 for the same...

    Yes, IBM will be around forever, but with $10,000 to put toward 61 shares of IBM or in a CD that will return near zero, or 1029 shares of PER, I will ride that train until it stops... And then switch... Because...

    Oil will be around forever also

    Cheers

    Aaron

  • Report this Comment On October 25, 2014, at 2:21 AM, SMC22 wrote:

    Nevermind... I should read twice before posting, three times if I still don't understand...

Add your comment.

Sponsored Links

Leaked: Apple's Next Smart Device
(Warning, it may shock you)
The secret is out... experts are predicting 458 million of these types of devices will be sold per year. 1 hyper-growth company stands to rake in maximum profit - and it's NOT Apple. Show me Apple's new smart gizmo!

DocumentId: 3010859, ~/Articles/ArticleHandler.aspx, 7/31/2015 1:52:41 PM

Report This Comment

Use this area to report a comment that you believe is in violation of the community guidelines. Our team will review the entry and take any appropriate action.

Sending report...

Tyler Crowe
TMFDirtyBird

Energy and materials columnist for fool.com.

Today's Market

updated Moments ago Sponsored by:
DOW 17,715.98 -30.00 -0.17%
S&P 500 2,107.17 -1.46 -0.07%
NASD 5,138.53 9.75 0.19%

Create My Watchlist

Go to My Watchlist

You don't seem to be following any stocks yet!

Better investing starts with a watchlist. Now you can create a personalized watchlist and get immediate access to the personalized information you need to make successful investing decisions.

Data delayed up to 5 minutes

Related Tickers

7/31/2015 1:37 PM
PER $7.21 Down -0.32 -4.25%
SandRidge Permian… CAPS Rating: **
SD $0.52 Down -0.04 -7.53%
SandRidge Energy CAPS Rating: **
SDR $3.64 Up +0.14 +4.00%
SANDRIDGE MISSISSI… CAPS Rating: **
SDT $4.60 Down -0.07 -1.50%
SandRidge Mississi… CAPS Rating: **

Advertisement