Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of dry bulk rig owner Scorpio Bulkers (NYSE: SALT) jumped as much as 11% today as rising oil prices gave investors hope in a future recovery.
So what: A recovery in oil prices doesn't directly mean much for Scorpio Bulkers and may actually lead to higher costs, but a rising tide lifts all ships and the shipping industry is on the rise today. One factor that could be a positive driver of revenue going forward was a report that fourth quarter real personal consumption expenditures were up 4.3%. This could lead to increased shipping of dry goods now that consumers are spending more on consumer goods and less on oil.
Now what: Today's move is one of those strange phenomenon on the market where an entire industry goes up, whether it makes sense or not. There may be some bullish signs for oil tankers today, but that's not Scorpio Bulkers business and they've been lumped in by traders bidding up all shippers today.
Maybe the worst sign today is the Baltic Dry Index falling 3%, indicating lower dayrates for dry bulk shippers. I certainly don't see a reason to buy Scorpio Bulkers today, especially after reporting $44.6 million in losses in the first nine months of 2014 to just $31.3 million in revenue. Until profits turn around dramatically I'm not getting anywhere near this stock.
