Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of Core-Mark Holding Company (CORE) fell nearly 13% Monday after the consumer goods distribution and marketing specialist announced disappointing fourth-quarter results and forward guidance.
So what: Quarterly net sales rose 4.7% year over year to $2.6 billion, including 5.6% growth in non-cigarette sales, and a 4.3% increase in cigarette sales. That translated to a 2.7% decline in net income to $14.6 million, or $0.62 per diluted share. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization climbed 15.3% to $36.1 million. Analysts, on average, were looking for higher earnings of $0.65 per share on sales of $2.65 billion.
Now what: For the full fiscal year 2015, Core-Mark sees net sales increasing to between $10.7 billion and $11.0 billion. That growth is expected to be driven by continue market share gains as Core-Mark assumes no new acquisitions or large customer wins. Meanwhile, adjusted EBITDA for the year should be between $125 million and $129 million, with adjusted earnings (which exclude around $16 million of estimated LIFO expenses) between $2.26 per share and $2.33 per share. Wall Street, for its part, was expecting significantly higher 2015 revenue and earnings of $11.26 billion and $2.63 per share, respectively.
In the end, that's not to say Core-Mark's weaker-than-expected results are indicative of a faltering business. The company just capped a reasonably solid 2014 and is expecting further growth in 2015. However, shares aren't exactly cheap relative to that growth trading around 27 times the mid-point of Core-Mark's expected 2015 earnings. For now, that's why I'm personally content continuing to watch Core-Mark from the sidelines.
