Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What's happening: Shares of Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO 1.26%) were up 15.2% as of 11 a.m. Tuesday after the video game developer reported mixed fiscal-fourth-quarter 2015 results and impressive current-quarter guidance.
Adjusted quarterly revenue -- which notably accounts for deferred revenue -- rose 83% year over year to $427.7 million, which translated to a 153% increase in adjusted net income to $54.3 million, or $0.49 per diluted share. Analysts, on average, were anticipating adjusted revenue of $458.9 million, and net income of $0.27 per share.
For the current quarter, Take-Two expects adjusted revenue of $325 million to $350 million, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.25 to $0.35. Wall Street's consensus called for fiscal-first-quarter 2016 revenue of only $197.7 million, and a loss of $0.02 per share. For the full fiscal year 2016, Take-Two sees adjusted revenue of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion, with adjusted net income per share of $0.75 to $1.00. Analysts' models were more optimistic, calling for full-year revenue and earnings of $1.52 billion and $1.29 per share, respectively.
Why it's happening: Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick noted fiscal 2015 was capped by the seamless launch of five triple-A titles for the holiday season, including Grand Theft Auto V and NBA 2K15. Take-Two also enjoyed its highest-ever digital revenue, including company-record revenue from recurring consumer spending. Take-Two's new Evolve franchise was also a significant contributor to both digital and recurring revenue during the quarter.
"Fiscal 2016 is off to a great start," Zelnick elaborated," highlighted by the April launch of Grand Theft Auto V for the PC, which has exceeded our expectations."
As it stands, given Take-Two's strong quarterly earnings and solid start to the current fiscal year, I can't blame the market for overlooking the game maker's soft full-year outlook for now.
